Migration inflow for Ohio 2015-2019

And outflow…

15 hours ago, BoomerangCleRes said:

And outflow…

Is this based on ACS data or another source?

Is this based on ACS data or another source?

You’re correct

https://www.census.gov/topics/population/migration/guidance/county-to-county-migration-flows.html

Census Bureau today update popualtion numbers. Cleveland as of 7/1/21 was 367.99K, down about 5.100 (1.4%) from the previous year.  There were much greater losses from other cities.  Of the 15 largest only Phoenix and San Antonio gained population. 

 

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/data/tables.html

53 minutes ago, Dougal said:

Of the 15 largest only Phoenix and San Antonio gained population.

...and Fort Worth, Jacksonville, Austin, and Columbus.

I have serious doubts with this "data." I think the reality is the patterns of movement in the last two years has poked huge holes in the census estimating process, a process that was already pretty bad at predicting actual population numbers.

 

Given the chaos of even trying to find an available home essentially...everywhere, I struggle to believe any major city is really losing people. Vacancy rates are lower than they were pre-pandemic and a population decrease doesn't support that at all.

46 minutes ago, aderwent said:

...and Fort Worth, Jacksonville, Austin, and Columbus.

Sorry. Yes, you're correct.   The actual report says: 

"

The top 15 largest cities remained the same as in 2020 although more than half experienced decreases in their population between 2020 and 2021: New York, New York (-305,465); Los Angeles, California (-40,537); Chicago, Illinois (-45,175); Houston, Texas (-11,777); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (-24,754); San Diego, California (-3,783); Dallas, Texas (-14,777); San Jose, California (-27,419); and Indianapolis, Indiana (-5,343).  

 

The other six most populous cities experienced some moderate to small growth in population. San Antonio, Texas, had the highest numeric gain of 13,626 people between 2020 and 2021. Followed by Phoenix, Arizona (13,224), and Fort Worth, Texas (12,916).

 

The remaining three large cities experienced relatively small population growth. Those cities were Jacksonville, Florida (4,151); Austin, Texas (1,056); and Columbus Ohio (adding only 668 people)."

3 hours ago, Dougal said:

Sorry. Yes, you're correct.   The actual report says: 

"

The top 15 largest cities remained the same as in 2020 although more than half experienced decreases in their population between 2020 and 2021: New York, New York (-305,465); Los Angeles, California (-40,537); Chicago, Illinois (-45,175); Houston, Texas (-11,777); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (-24,754); San Diego, California (-3,783); Dallas, Texas (-14,777); San Jose, California (-27,419); and Indianapolis, Indiana (-5,343).  

 

The other six most populous cities experienced some moderate to small growth in population. San Antonio, Texas, had the highest numeric gain of 13,626 people between 2020 and 2021. Followed by Phoenix, Arizona (13,224), and Fort Worth, Texas (12,916).

 

The remaining three large cities experienced relatively small population growth. Those cities were Jacksonville, Florida (4,151); Austin, Texas (1,056); and Columbus Ohio (adding only 668 people)."

Quote

Columbus Ohio (adding only 668 people)."

adding "only" 668 people is better than losing over 5,000. You just can't keep Cbus down. The ONLY city not in the sunbelt that did not lose population among those top 15 cities.

 

San Antonio

Phoenix

Fort Worth

Jacksonville

Austin

 

And Columbus!

 

And I think Intel coming will keep those numbers looking good-for us, that is.

 

*trying to diss us with that "only" added in...please. And after the original mistake even. smh.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 26, 20223 yr by Toddguy

As I've been saying, I don't think anyone should be hanging their hat on the recent numbers coming out.  Austin barely adding 1000 people in a year would be a hell of a fall given their typical growth.  I know it was an unusual and tough year, so even if these numbers were remotely accurate (and I have my doubts, to say the least), I would expect more of a return to normal over the next few years.  Barring another national or global disaster of some kind... 

 

All that said, Columbus hanging on in the positive in even some of the worst estimates in generations nationally is pretty impressive.  

Edited May 27, 20223 yr by jonoh81

5 hours ago, jmicha said:

I have serious doubts with this "data." I think the reality is the patterns of movement in the last two years has poked huge holes in the census estimating process, a process that was already pretty bad at predicting actual population numbers.

 

Given the chaos of even trying to find an available home essentially...everywhere, I struggle to believe any major city is really losing people. Vacancy rates are lower than they were pre-pandemic and a population decrease doesn't support that at all.

It's honestly hard to have doubts of any data sheet showing Cleveland losing population. 

Why do you say that? 

Just now, TBideon said:

Why do you say that? 

Probably the fact that the city has lost population consistently since the 1950s, businesses and retail continue to leave the city proper at a higher rate than those growing or coming in, the uncontrolled violent crime and piss poor response times/staffing of the police department, extremely limited options for decent public schools make the suburbs sound heavenly to couples right when they have children. The city isn't going to grow when the majority of people moving into Tremont, Ohio City, downtown are recent college grads looking for places that are within walking distance of bars. Either they have kids and move out, or violent crime hits a little close to home and they flee to Lakewood or Cleveland Heights. Compound that with the long time residents of once stable neighborhoods fleeing for the inner ring suburbs and it's doubtful you'll even come close to gaining population.

Well, there's always annexation.  Perhaps it's time for Cleveland and East Cleveland to start talking again.

 

Edited May 27, 20223 yr by LibertyBlvd

4 hours ago, Toddguy said:

adding "only" 668 people is better than losing over 5,000. You just can't keep Cbus down. The ONLY city not in the sunbelt that did not lose population among those top 15 cities.

 

San Antonio

Phoenix

Fort Worth

Jacksonville

Austin

 

And Columbus!

 

And I think Intel coming will keep those numbers looking good-for us, that is.

 

*trying to diss us with that "only" added in...please. And after the original mistake even. smh.

 

 

 

 

 

The "only" was the Census Bureau's word, not mine.  🙂

1 hour ago, AsDustinFoxWouldSay said:

Probably the fact that the city has lost population consistently since the 1950s, businesses and retail continue to leave the city proper at a higher rate than those growing or coming in, the uncontrolled violent crime and piss poor response times/staffing of the police department, extremely limited options for decent public schools make the suburbs sound heavenly to couples right when they have children. The city isn't going to grow when the majority of people moving into Tremont, Ohio City, downtown are recent college grads looking for places that are within walking distance of bars. Either they have kids and move out, or violent crime hits a little close to home and they flee to Lakewood or Cleveland Heights. Compound that with the long time residents of once stable neighborhoods fleeing for the inner ring suburbs and it's doubtful you'll even come close to gaining population.

Both Lakewood and Cleveland Heights had a higher percent of losses than Cleveland. According to these numbers, the only places in Cuyahoga County that have grown since 2020 are Olmsted Falls (+59), Berea (+42) and Orange (+14).

 

The outer ring burbs (Westlake, North Olmsted, Strongsville, North Royalton, Broadview Heights, Brecksville, Solon, Mayfield, Mayfield Heights, Highland Heights) combined to lose 2,000. The inner burbs, according to the latest numbers, lost overall at as high or even higher percent than the city of Cleveland. 

 

I wouldn't read too much into these revised numbers. Estimates from 2010-2020 were about 40,000 off for Cuyahoga and looks like it's basically saying our estimates were better than the actual census count. Statistically, both counts were bad and Cleveland/Cuyahoga was undercounted more than anywhere in Ohio if you base if off of what was released about which groups were under/overcounted nationally.

 

I also wouldn't worry about population, anyway. Metro Cleveland does have an older population, nothing it can control there. It's still in the cycle where naturally, they will die off (or retire and move to a warmer climate) at a faster pace. What the metro area can control is job creation. There, the Cleveland area is holding its own nationally and has been the top performing metro in Ohio in the last 1.5 years.

 

First, I'll look at the 3Cs in the 2020 census period (which ran from roughly March 2009 to March 2019). In that period, job growth, by metro, was:

 

1. Columbus - 171,400

2. Cincinnati - 113,400

3. Cleveland - 61,100

 

Cleveland was clobbered by the other two and way behind nationally.

 

Since the new census period, starting April 2019 to present, the numbers stand:

 

1. Columbus - 5,700

2. Cincinnati - -19,800

3. Cleveland - -27,900

 

The pandemic killed the numbers for all three, though Columbus was still able to stay slightly in the positive overall.

 

Since the pandemic (April 2020 is when every metro in the country took huge losses), it's:

 

1. Columbus - 149,000

2. Cincinnati - 140,500

3. Cleveland - 133,800

 

Columbus still has gained the most since the pandemic (April 2020) and is 0.89% above its pre-pandemic total ... Cleveland is -0.66% and Cincinnati is -1.24% below. So, Columbus is still doing better, but it's not like Columbus is way ahead of its pre-pandemic numbers or Cleveland or Cincinnati are way behind in just getting back to even. 

 

Since the start of 2021 (last 16 months), it's:

 

1. Cleveland - 49,100

2. Columbus - 36,400

3. Cincinnati - 32,900

 

Year-over-year (April 2021 to April 2022), it's:

 

1. Cleveland - 28,800

2. Columbus - 25,100

3. Cincinnati - 15,400

 

Long story short, Cleveland is doing ok, especially considering where it had been, even if it may not translate to population gains in the short term. 

 

 

11 hours ago, AsDustinFoxWouldSay said:

It's honestly hard to have doubts of any data sheet showing Cleveland losing population. 

My doubts arise from what I'm seeing in other places, not so much Cleveland. because I haven't worked on anything in Cleveland in a bit.

 

The idea, for instance, that where I live (NYC) has seen dramatic 6 figure population losses when single open houses for a one bedroom priced under $2,000/month go viral for having hundreds of people showing up makes no sense. Inventory is lower than it was before the pandemic, prices are going wild as a result of there being nowhere left to live, etc. I don't doubt the population dipped in 2020, but things have absolutely rebounded.

 

And the story is the same for most other cities. I know people in LA having trouble finding housing, a coworker who lives in Atlanta said they wanted to find something new but decided just to renew their lease because its increase (something like $500/month) was less than what they were seeing on the market because there were so few available options, same thing for a friend who just moved to Miami, etc.

 

Basically what I'm saying is, the census's estimates are often heavily tied to things like job numbers and tax returns. But those don't tell the full picture in a world that's highly remote and where people are shifting around (both to and from).

 

For some background, I design multi-family units for a property management company's in-house design team, and we're seeing huge increases in rental prices in every market we're in due to lack of available inventory with one exception, San Francisco. Our real estate analysts and underwriting team are having to update their models to reflect higher rental rates, lower inventories, and significantly faster leas-ups.

8 hours ago, Rando Sinclair said:

Both Lakewood and Cleveland Heights had a higher percent of losses than Cleveland. According to these numbers, the only places in Cuyahoga County that have grown since 2020 are Olmsted Falls (+59), Berea (+42) and Orange (+14).

 

The outer ring burbs (Westlake, North Olmsted, Strongsville, North Royalton, Broadview Heights, Brecksville, Solon, Mayfield, Mayfield Heights, Highland Heights) combined to lose 2,000. The inner burbs, according to the latest numbers, lost overall at as high or even higher percent than the city of Cleveland. 

 

I wouldn't read too much into these revised numbers. Estimates from 2010-2020 were about 40,000 off for Cuyahoga and looks like it's basically saying our estimates were better than the actual census count. Statistically, both counts were bad and Cleveland/Cuyahoga was undercounted more than anywhere in Ohio if you base if off of what was released about which groups were under/overcounted nationally.

 

I also wouldn't worry about population, anyway. Metro Cleveland does have an older population, nothing it can control there. It's still in the cycle where naturally, they will die off (or retire and move to a warmer climate) at a faster pace. What the metro area can control is job creation. There, the Cleveland area is holding its own nationally and has been the top performing metro in Ohio in the last 1.5 years.

 

First, I'll look at the 3Cs in the 2020 census period (which ran from roughly March 2009 to March 2019). In that period, job growth, by metro, was:

 

1. Columbus - 171,400

2. Cincinnati - 113,400

3. Cleveland - 61,100

 

Cleveland was clobbered by the other two and way behind nationally.

 

Since the new census period, starting April 2019 to present, the numbers stand:

 

1. Columbus - 5,700

2. Cincinnati - -19,800

3. Cleveland - -27,900

 

The pandemic killed the numbers for all three, though Columbus was still able to stay slightly in the positive overall.

 

Since the pandemic (April 2020 is when every metro in the country took huge losses), it's:

 

1. Columbus - 149,000

2. Cincinnati - 140,500

3. Cleveland - 133,800

 

Columbus still has gained the most since the pandemic (April 2020) and is 0.89% above its pre-pandemic total ... Cleveland is -0.66% and Cincinnati is -1.24% below. So, Columbus is still doing better, but it's not like Columbus is way ahead of its pre-pandemic numbers or Cleveland or Cincinnati are way behind in just getting back to even. 

 

Since the start of 2021 (last 16 months), it's:

 

1. Cleveland - 49,100

2. Columbus - 36,400

3. Cincinnati - 32,900

 

Year-over-year (April 2021 to April 2022), it's:

 

1. Cleveland - 28,800

2. Columbus - 25,100

3. Cincinnati - 15,400

 

Long story short, Cleveland is doing ok, especially considering where it had been, even if it may not translate to population gains in the short term. 

 

 

Are these positive or negative numbers? I get the 2009-2019 census are gains but then I lose you on if the others are gains or losses. 

What about all those out-of-state license plates we were seeing during the pandemic?  I thought people were leaving NYC and other large cities and moving to Cleveland.

9 hours ago, Dougal said:

The "only" was the Census Bureau's word, not mine.  🙂

Yeah I was just being snarky lol. And we all know these estimates since Covid are a big mess anyway. This data to me is really meaningless.

So where did all of these people go, if they are leaving big cities? Outer ring suburbs? Rural areas? Perhaps the staggering losses estimated are because of families with children leaving cities where schools were closed, for exurban or rural areas where schools might have been open? Or were they going back and living with (grand)parents? 

I can't say I buy the census numbers at this point, and I know I'm not the only one.  

1 hour ago, jmicha said:

The idea, for instance, that where I live (NYC) has seen dramatic 6 figure population losses when single open houses for a one bedroom priced under $2,000/month go viral for having hundreds of people showing up makes no sense. Inventory is lower than it was before the pandemic, prices are going wild as a result of there being nowhere left to live, etc. I don't doubt the population dipped in 2020, but things have absolutely rebounded.

 

And the story is the same for most other cities. I know people in LA having trouble finding housing, a coworker who lives in Atlanta said they wanted to find something new but decided just to renew their lease because its increase (something like $500/month) was less than what they were seeing on the market because there were so few available options, same thing for a friend who just moved to Miami, etc.

This doesn't really mean much when you consider that every city has its desirable areas and undesirable areas.  Just because you have people fighting over housing in a desirable area, it doesn't mean you don't still have tons of vacant, boarded up buildings in another area of town.  It's possible that people are fleeing those undesirable areas in higher numbers than the desirable areas are gaining.  I'm not saying that this is definitely what's happening.  But, it is a possibility that would explain your scenario.

50 minutes ago, westerninterloper said:

So where did all of these people go, if they are leaving big cities? Outer ring suburbs? Rural areas? Perhaps the staggering losses estimated are because of families with children leaving cities where schools were closed, for exurban or rural areas where schools might have been open? Or were they going back and living with (grand)parents? 

I wonder how many just died; we need the CB's next release to add demographics to these numbers.  750K oldsters have died of Covid; it didn't all happen in Florida.

1 hour ago, jmicha said:

My doubts arise from what I'm seeing in other places, not so much Cleveland. because I haven't worked on anything in Cleveland in a bit.

 

The idea, for instance, that where I live (NYC) has seen dramatic 6 figure population losses when single open houses for a one bedroom priced under $2,000/month go viral for having hundreds of people showing up makes no sense. Inventory is lower than it was before the pandemic, prices are going wild as a result of there being nowhere left to live, etc. I don't doubt the population dipped in 2020, but things have absolutely rebounded.

 

And the story is the same for most other cities. I know people in LA having trouble finding housing, a coworker who lives in Atlanta said they wanted to find something new but decided just to renew their lease because its increase (something like $500/month) was less than what they were seeing on the market because there were so few available options, same thing for a friend who just moved to Miami, etc.

 

Basically what I'm saying is, the census's estimates are often heavily tied to things like job numbers and tax returns. But those don't tell the full picture in a world that's highly remote and where people are shifting around (both to and from).

 

For some background, I design multi-family units for a property management company's in-house design team, and we're seeing huge increases in rental prices in every market we're in due to lack of available inventory with one exception, San Francisco. Our real estate analysts and underwriting team are having to update their models to reflect higher rental rates, lower inventories, and significantly faster leas-ups.

 

Of note, these estimates are for the year ending July 1, 2021. That's the height of a lot of pandemic-related issues. Higher deaths, work from home, lower births. Things have looked a lot different since then. I fully expect that next year's estimates will be much more rosy.

19 minutes ago, Dougal said:

I wonder how many just died; we need the CB's next release to add demographics to these numbers.  750K oldsters have died of Covid; it didn't all happen in Florida.

 

This is the right answer. Deaths were WAY up in 2020-2021. 

28 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

This is the right answer. Deaths were WAY up in 2020-2021. 

 

By how much?

1 hour ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

This doesn't really mean much when you consider that every city has its desirable areas and undesirable areas.  Just because you have people fighting over housing in a desirable area, it doesn't mean you don't still have tons of vacant, boarded up buildings in another area of town.  It's possible that people are fleeing those undesirable areas in higher numbers than the desirable areas are gaining.  I'm not saying that this is definitely what's happening.  But, it is a possibility that would explain your scenario.

True, but the one I was actually thinking of wasn't in a super desirable neighborhood. It was far from a train and pretty deep into Brooklyn.

 

But that is true. I also didn't realize these numbers ended in July 2021. I missed that and thought they were estimates at the end of 2021. It's possible the dip cities in general saw hadn't yet had the opportunity to turn around at time of these estimates.

 

I still think they're likely off by quite a bit given the nature of their process, but still.

22 hours ago, Toddguy said:

Yeah I was just being snarky lol. And we all know these estimates since Covid are a big mess anyway. This data to me is really meaningless.

 

No, I don't think you were.  You even managed to throw a dig at Cleveland with the 5,000 remark.  Just like you were making smart little comments about "other cities in the sta.... region..." in other threads.  You make little negative comments about Cleveland in many threads.  It gets really old.

On 5/27/2022 at 10:38 AM, cbussoccer said:

 

By how much?

Deaths were up 18 percent from 2019 to 2020 and .82% from 2020 to 2021.

On 5/27/2022 at 8:48 AM, jmicha said:

My doubts arise from what I'm seeing in other places, not so much Cleveland. because I haven't worked on anything in Cleveland in a bit.

 

The idea, for instance, that where I live (NYC) has seen dramatic 6 figure population losses when single open houses for a one bedroom priced under $2,000/month go viral for having hundreds of people showing up makes no sense. Inventory is lower than it was before the pandemic, prices are going wild as a result of there being nowhere left to live, etc. I don't doubt the population dipped in 2020, but things have absolutely rebounded.

 

And the story is the same for most other cities. I know people in LA having trouble finding housing, a coworker who lives in Atlanta said they wanted to find something new but decided just to renew their lease because its increase (something like $500/month) was less than what they were seeing on the market because there were so few available options, same thing for a friend who just moved to Miami, etc.

 

Basically what I'm saying is, the census's estimates are often heavily tied to things like job numbers and tax returns. But those don't tell the full picture in a world that's highly remote and where people are shifting around (both to and from).

 

For some background, I design multi-family units for a property management company's in-house design team, and we're seeing huge increases in rental prices in every market we're in due to lack of available inventory with one exception, San Francisco. Our real estate analysts and underwriting team are having to update their models to reflect higher rental rates, lower inventories, and significantly faster leas-ups.

 

 

2022 Q1 permits from nyc are out and are basically double last year (it's 19,337 res/hotel units).

 

so there is that.

 

i dont think permits translates so well for cle tho, as there are so many renos and move back inable places there. same for cinci probably.

 

more:

https://newyorkyimby.com/2022/05/yimbys-2022-q1-report-shows-19337-new-residential-and-hotel-units-filed-from-january-through-march-in-new-york-city.html

On 5/27/2022 at 11:38 AM, cbussoccer said:

 

By how much?

 

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/03/united-states-deaths-spiked-as-covid-19-continued.html

 

The largest increase in 100 years. 19% increase in 2020 and stayed elevated in 2021.

Is this news or did I just miss it?  Cleveland Metro area showed population growth of 1,000 (0.06%) from 2020 to 2021.  Ok, a baby step - but the projections get better: 1,932,000 by 2037, fifteen years. Whatever metro area this group uses is neither the MSA nor the CSA the feds generally cite.  The 1,761,000 number looks like the usual 5-county MSA plus Summit County.

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22959/cleveland/population

8 hours ago, Dougal said:

Is this news or did I just miss it?  Cleveland Metro area showed population growth of 1,000 (0.06%) from 2020 to 2021.  Ok, a baby step - but the projections get better: 1,932,000 by 2037, fifteen years. Whatever metro area this group uses is neither the MSA nor the CSA the feds generally cite.  The 1,761,000 number looks like the usual 5-county MSA plus Summit County.

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22959/cleveland/population

 

The 5 county MSA alone has over 2 million people.  I don't know where those numbers are from.  Here is the data straight from the Census website for the 2020 Populations and the Vintage 2021 Population Estimates:

 

 

Edited August 1, 20222 yr by jam40jeff

Interesting new data from Rent.com seems to show potential growth in Cleveland. https://www.rent.com/research/migration-nation/

1 hour ago, OH_Really said:

Interesting new data from Rent.com seems to show potential growth in Cleveland. https://www.rent.com/research/migration-nation/

 

I dunno. How accurate is their data or how useful is it to project their data to the full market?  According to them Columbus had more outflow than inflow---so if we use this data as part of the broader trend, Columbus lost people. And although I myself just moved from there to CLE, I have personally seen more people coming into to Columbus than leaving.

 

Metro -  Leads Out. -  Leads In.  -  Difference.  -  Lead Delta

Columbus OH.   50,503.    42,376      -8,127.     -8.75%

Cleveland-Akron (Canton) OH.    72,320.    82,297.    9,977.   6.45%

 

 

 

On 9/2/2022 at 3:26 PM, jcw92 said:

 

I dunno. How accurate is their data or how useful is it to project their data to the full market?  According to them Columbus had more outflow than inflow---so if we use this data as part of the broader trend, Columbus lost people. And although I myself just moved from there to CLE, I have personally seen more people coming into to Columbus than leaving.

 

Metro -  Leads Out. -  Leads In.  -  Difference.  -  Lead Delta

Columbus OH.   50,503.    42,376      -8,127.     -8.75%

Cleveland-Akron (Canton) OH.    72,320.    82,297.    9,977.   6.45%

 

 

 

 

Yea, the data doesn't seem very reliable. It suggests cities like Orlando, Austin, Nashville, and Charlotte experienced outflows significantly larger than Cleveland and many other cities which have been consistently stagnant or shrinking for a while now. That seems highly unlikely.

On 9/2/2022 at 3:26 PM, jcw92 said:

And although I myself just moved from there to CLE, I have personally seen more people coming into to Columbus than leaving.

 

It's beyond impossible to measure population and migration trends based on anecdotal evidence.

15 minutes ago, cbussoccer said:

 

Yea, the data doesn't seem very reliable. It suggests cities like Orlando, Austin, Nashville, and Charlotte experienced outflows significantly larger than Cleveland and many other cities which have been consistently stagnant or shrinking for a while now. That seems highly unlikely.

 

The cycle of migration is beginning to change due to many factors such as climate and cost of living.

 

Cleveland isn't going to always lose people in the torrent future. Just like at some point the growth that Columbus has seen will eventually wane.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

 

The cycle of migration is beginning to change due to many factors such as climate and cost of living.

 

Cleveland isn't going to always lose people in the torrent future. Just like at some point the growth that Columbus has seen will eventually wane.

 

 

 

Yes, obviously population trends will eventually change, but I have serious doubts about the data when it suggests that Austin, Nashville, Charlotte, Columbus, Orlando, etc. all suddenly began losing population. Sure, it could be true, but it certainly warrants some speculation.

10 hours ago, cbussoccer said:

 

Yes, obviously population trends will eventually change, but I have serious doubts about the data when it suggests that Austin, Nashville, Charlotte, Columbus, Orlando, etc. all suddenly began losing population. Sure, it could be true, but it certainly warrants some speculation.

 

These population shifts are occurring in real time. The 2030 census will turn some heads. By 2050, Cleveland & Detroit may be the fastest growing cities/metros in the country. 

Edited September 15, 20222 yr by Clefan98

I would expect Cleveland and vicinity to add a large number Ukrainian immigrants by 2030.

Still true....

 

So while Cleveland and other large, affordable Rust Belt cities were diversifying their economies with wealthier economic activities, Saunders said popular Sun Belt cities like Orlando, Tampa/St. Petersburg, Dallas, Las Vegas and Phoenix saw their average per capita GDP gains rise less than the overall average for the 106 largest metros he studied.

"The places we’ve traditionally thought of as 'winners' — the big coastal cities (New York, Los Angeles, etc) and Sun Belt metros — may soon face problems," Saunders wrote. "The former are rapidly becoming unaffordable and driving out middle-class families. The latter could suffer from a glut of under-skilled workers in an environment that increasingly demands high-skilled labor."

 

By contrast, he said Cleveland and other cities in the middle of the country are beginning to generate real economic opportunity while remaining affordable and livable, he said.

 

https://neo-trans.blogspot.com/2021/09/cleveland-growing-faster-than-national.html

10 hours ago, Clefan98 said:

Still true....

 

So while Cleveland and other large, affordable Rust Belt cities were diversifying their economies with wealthier economic activities, Saunders said popular Sun Belt cities like Orlando, Tampa/St. Petersburg, Dallas, Las Vegas and Phoenix saw their average per capita GDP gains rise less than the overall average for the 106 largest metros he studied.

"The places we’ve traditionally thought of as 'winners' — the big coastal cities (New York, Los Angeles, etc) and Sun Belt metros — may soon face problems," Saunders wrote. "The former are rapidly becoming unaffordable and driving out middle-class families. The latter could suffer from a glut of under-skilled workers in an environment that increasingly demands high-skilled labor."

 

By contrast, he said Cleveland and other cities in the middle of the country are beginning to generate real economic opportunity while remaining affordable and livable, he said.

 

https://neo-trans.blogspot.com/2021/09/cleveland-growing-faster-than-national.html

 

It’s called the “housing theory of everything”.

 

https://www.worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-everything/

 

 

 

 

The iron is red piping scalding hot and we need to strike now by building to keep our surplus, and consequently, housing costs low. 
 

Our tag line to companies should be:

 

 

”We will house your employees when other cities won’t”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 15, 20222 yr by TotalTransit

7 hours ago, TotalTransit said:

 

It’s called the “housing theory of everything”.

 

https://www.worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-everything/

 

 

 

 

The iron is red piping scalding hot and we need to strike now by building to keep our surplus, and consequently, housing costs low. 
 

Our tag line to companies should be:

 

 

”We will house your employees when other cities won’t”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mayor Bibb should use ARP funds to establish a program for people who buy and renovate existing homes in the city of Cleveland.    It would certainly have more long term effects than using the funds to give all the bloated city payroll raises.  

1 hour ago, Cleburger said:

Mayor Bibb should use ARP funds to establish a program for people who buy and renovate existing homes in the city of Cleveland.    It would certainly have more long term effects than using the funds to give all the bloated city payroll raises.  

 

I'm more than willing to do this than doing nothing, but I am not convinced we should focus on renovation.

 

I feel like we have an irrational affinity to old housing at our own detriment. New housing is not only better but also provides us with a better return on investment.  Especially considering the majority of Cleveland's housing stock is wood frame. 

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/01/stop-fetishizing-old-homes-new-construction-nice/621012/

 

^ I kind of feel this sentiment, too. This reminded me of a recent post in a Cleveland photo group that showed the collapse of a load-bearing brick exterior wall that has most likely doomed the entire structure to which I replied:

 

"When people say old buildings were built better, I point out that load bearing brick isn’t built anymore for this very reason. It’s a lot of mass with many potential points of failure, and it’s not great to put all of your load bearing floor joists into brick walls that have a tendency to shift. Hence why they often need to be supported with iron “stars” which help reinforce bulging walls. This is why we build with brick today as a decorative material. It’s an exterior sheathing and not load bearing."

 

I'm referring to brick stacked three deep and simply held together with mortar. We no longer build load bearing walls with this method for many reasons but people keep fetishizing it as somehow better. I remember when I sold my brick house in Cincinnati, it was one of many - and while mine was in good condition because of a recent rehab, it required a lot of maintenance. Fixing water damage that was starting to affect a floor joist; fixing defective paint on the brick because of inadequate primer application; spalling brick. And not on my house but down the road, a bulging wall because of water intrusion and freeze/thaw needed to be completely reconstructed. And other houses had "stars" which are not decorative but the ends of rods that helped to reinforce bulging walls.

 

Then you have housing choice. Sorry, but a lot of Cleveland's housing stock just isn't that attractive for 2022. A lot of it is simple wood frame, which isn't necessarily bad, but has been manipulated to the point that it is no longer cost effective to renovate in light of property values in some neighborhoods. Many (like this) are also duplexes which are not that desirable from a homeownership perspective. It's kind of like Baltimore: there is so much of the same building stock and style, built cheaply, that they just aren't viable to rescue. Better housing choices and materials can be utilized in new construction.

Edited September 15, 20222 yr by seicer

Not buying it.  Of course old brick and wood frame houses require lots of maintenance- they're old.  Let's see how these vinyl sided monstrosities in Avon are holding up in 100+ years.  I've been in a bunch of homes built in the last 30 years and they are nearly all trash.

17 minutes ago, X said:

Not buying it.  Of course old brick and wood frame houses require lots of maintenance- they're old.  Let's see how these vinyl sided monstrosities in Avon are holding up in 100+ years.  I've been in a bunch of homes built in the last 30 years and they are nearly all trash.

Tremont is exhibit A. Arguably the worst stock in the city but nearly completely intact. And I’m not sure Cleveland needs any more encouragement in destroying its historic housing. I understand what the article is saying about limiting multi family development, but again I don’t think that’s an issue in Cleveland.  I think we have one current instance of NIMBYs blocking development on W 73rd and people are extrapolating that into a city-wide problem. 

3 hours ago, X said:

Not buying it.  Of course old brick and wood frame houses require lots of maintenance- they're old.  Let's see how these vinyl sided monstrosities in Avon are holding up in 100+ years.  I've been in a bunch of homes built in the last 30 years and they are nearly all trash.

 

I think this is a perfect example of survivorship bias.

 

https://www.worksinprogress.co/issue/against-the-survival-of-the-prettiest/#:~:text=The survivorship bias theory about,ones%2C all else being equal

 

 

Quote

The survivorship bias theory about buildings starts from the premiss that people are less likely to demolish beautiful buildings than ugly ones, all else being equal. This will be partly because people like beauty, but also because the property owners who could afford to invest in beauty could also afford to invest in build quality. Thus, as the stock built in a given period ages, its uglier members will be demolished at a greater rate than its beautiful ones, leading to the proportion of beautiful buildings rising over time.

 

Edited September 15, 20222 yr by TotalTransit