I agree with you except for the SF homes on 1/2 acre lots part. With the land prices out there, I'd bet their average metro lot size is a lot smaller than ours.

 

It was just a general statement...you could have inserted any typical suburban detail there (i.e. surburban track housing).

i'm not sure many clevelanders moved too far away. i wonder how many of those msa'ers move from cle to col? the inverse numbers always seem to go relatively arm in arm.

 

i guess one indication is that if the northern half of ohio is losing people and the southern half gaining, the state population estimate as a whole would at least have to hold steady. did it? maybe we can poke around for more on this kind of thing.

Ohio +3,404

I agree. With only 77 square miles, Cleveland proper is significantly smaller than most newer cities. However, the PD will never address this issue. The PD, and for that matter most Cleveladers, do not realize our region is changing from a manufacturing based economy to a service driven one. For the most part, Charlotte, Atlanta, Dallas and Las Vegas were not huge manufacturing centers, and did not experience the decline Cleveland or Detroit has seen over the last forty years. Its like our region started the race two minutes behind. Our region has to reinvent our economy to postion ourselves in today's global economy. This is not an easy task, and explains most of the population loss. I think current investment downtown should help the region become more attractive. In 2007, the region officially became a service economy. I think this is an important issues, but with the amount of money being invested in the city I think we will see a change over the next ten years. Hopefully, as we move towards a more service driven economy, the region will see an increase in population.  My grandparents left Alabama and moved to Cleveland in 1951. My grandmother recently told me she thought the South would never comeback. Now, almost sixty years later southern states are attracting thousands of Americans each year. I truly believe changing economics and demographics will benefit NEO over the next coming decades.

^Good points.  It should be pointed out that as of last year, Greater Cleveland's economy is no longer based on manufacturing, but on the medical sector (which can be attributed to the amount of manufacturing jobs lost during the last recession).

As long as Cleveland doesn't start to resemble Niagara Falls/Buffalo things have the potential to come back. (was there last weekend, seriously depressing)

sir2gees/oldmanladyluck what exactly are you referencing when you make the claim that cleveland "officially" made the transition from manufacturing to a service/medical based economy in 2007?  I don't doubt you, but is it based on # jobs in the region that fit into that description, or something else?

My opinion is this is a "when the news breaks, we fix it" story. I have additional thoughts here....

 

http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,13110.msg304707.html#msg304707

I still think the city/county should be challenging this.  Something deep down inside tells me there are major flaws with the counting in NE ohio.

Flee2TheCleve -

 

I remember reading the article in PD early this year. To be honest, I can't remember that exact numbers or what criteria to they used to make the claim. But I do remember seeing it. (I think ABJ had the same article)

holy toledo! looking at my local news on this census estimate topic i saw that nyc has gained about a cincinnati since 2000.  biggest total pop gain of any u.s. city. now that's crazy talk. :-o

 

thx fg for the ohio state population info. holding steady is good news for ohio as a whole, better than i thought.

^All that immigration in NYC.  It's really astounding.  I would love Cleveland to get a bigger taste of that.  It's what's keeping Chicago proper afloat too (though not really growing).

^i would love for cleveland to get any taste of immigration!

 

on a brighter side i never even realized, but i see lorain has continued to slowly and steadily gain back some people since 2000 and is now up over 70k again. so 'the oughts' have been good to it after decades of steep decline. if a kind of a local mini-cleveland can turn it around there is hope for cleveland proper!

^All that immigration in NYC.  It's really astounding.  I would love Cleveland to get a bigger taste of that.  It's what's keeping Chicago proper afloat too (though not really growing).

 

unfortunately this is also what keeps housing costs at obscenely high levels; driven mainly by the never-ending tide of Eurotrash, trustafarians, and Wall St. yuppie scum.

Something stinks.  I still think the city should be doing something to counter this and the negative - real or perceived - image this has.

^ Indeed. Cincy gained and they are talking about fighting that the number isn't high enough.

Something stinks.  I still think the city should be doing something to counter this and the negative - real or perceived - image this has.

 

Who have you contacted/called/written to, to express your views?

Something stinks.  I still think the city should be doing something to counter this and the negative - real or perceived - image this has.

 

Who have you contacted/called/written to, to express your views?

 

Hey...thats my line.  :-o  You can't be using my own words against me!  :wink:

 

When I get home, I'll look for my previous correspondence and fire off some new letters.

yes he can by god he's the pope! he's goofin on you mts. and you deserve it!  :laugh:  :wink:

I think the thing that still greatly frustrates me about Cleveland is its lack of higher educated residents. I'm not talking about people in the suburbs. I'm talking about in the city proper. According to Brookings, it's astonishingly low.

 

Would it be fair to say that, because of the loss of industrial, no-college-degree required jobs (for a great portion of them), so go the people who work these jobs? I think, to usher in a new wave of change, people NEED to start getting educated. I honestly think this lack makes up much of Cleveland's problems .. from electing new officials to attracting new, progressive-minded companies.

yes he can by god he's the pope! he's goofin on you mts. and you deserve it!  :laugh:  :wink:

 

Hush...I walked past your crib earlier today!  The people in your hood are crazy!

As long as Cleveland doesn't start to resemble Niagara Falls/Buffalo things have the potential to come back. (was there last weekend, seriously depressing)

 

While Buffalo-Niagara has been in long-term decline/stagnation... that area has been experiencing strong economic growth and housing value appreciation over the past year. 

^ Indeed. Cincy gained and they are talking about fighting that the number isn't high enough.

 

Honestly, I wouldn't worry about it.  The Census Bureau has made such a mockery of its estimates with its questionable methodology, retroactive revisions and caving in to political pressure from local jurisdictions that its annual estimates are basically useless.  Just have patience... "real" numbers will be here in a couple years.

I think the thing that still greatly frustrates me about Cleveland is its lack of higher educated residents. I'm not talking about people in the suburbs. I'm talking about in the city proper. According to Brookings, it's astonishingly low.

 

Would it be fair to say that, because of the loss of industrial, no-college-degree required jobs (for a great portion of them), so go the people who work these jobs? I think, to usher in a new wave of change, people NEED to start getting educated. I honestly think this lack makes up much of Cleveland's problems .. from electing new officials to attracting new, progressive-minded companies.

 

you are not wrong jpop... that's why i often say we don't have a jobs problem, we have a talent pool problem.  Unfortunatlely a lot of "kids" grow up in the suburbs/exurbs and leave because they now live so far out that there is a disconnect between the outer areas and the center city.  All they know of the center city is going to some indians games and what they read in the PD... which basically tells them the city sucks.  So they graduate and go elsewhere to greener pastures.

Unfortunatlely a lot of "kids" grow up in the suburbs/exurbs and leave because they now live so far out that there is a disconnect between the outer areas and the center city.  All they know of the center city is going to some indians games and what they read in the PD... which basically tells them the city sucks.  So they graduate and go elsewhere to greener pastures.

 

I went to high school at Ignatius and that experience greatly fueled my appreciation for Cleveland (I know that the same is true for Map Boy). I wish that kids had things other than Indians' games to help create an affinity for downtown.

thats true evergrey, but it's a close enough guess and over time there are definite trends. of the three c's i would fairly be comfortable to broadly characterize cleveland's city population as continuing to drop and columbus's to rise. cincy's population is very stagnant. we can at least take that away from it, or no?

Just have patience... "real" numbers will be here in a couple years.

 

Yes, "real" numbers that have flawed methodology behind them.  Expect the challenges to keep coming from Cincinnati.  I would also expect them to continue to grow on a county-wide level where most communities in HamCo challenge the Census results.

 

of the three c's i would fairly be comfortable to broadly characterize cleveland's city population as continuing to drop and columbus's to rise. cincy's population is very stagnant. we can at least take that away from it, or no?

 

This seems to be fair enough.

thats true evergrey, but it's a close enough guess and over time there are definite trends. of the three c's i would fairly be comfortable to broadly characterize cleveland's city population as continuing to drop and columbus's to rise. cincy's population is very stagnant. we can at least take that away from it, or no?

 

but again you HAVE to take geographic size into the equation.  Of course columbus city's population grows.  What is technically columbus city is pretty far out there.  what some would consider sprawl is technically still columbus city.

jpop -

 

I agree. However, this is more complicated than just getting education. I'm currently writing a paper on the the loss of  manufacturing jobs and its effects  on African-American men. (what I found also applies to every region with a disproportionate amount of blue collar jobs). Forty years of massive jobs losses have left many Cleveland neighborhoods in turmoil. The change from a manufacturing economy to a service one, left thousands of families economically stranded. I recently read 70 percent of all  males in northern industrial cities held manufacturing jobs between 1967-87. Therefore, when these jobs disappeared entire communities were devastated. Think about it, in less than one generation an entire community lost all economic traction. Almost all the problems we see in this city is directly correlated with the loss of our manufacturing base. It is the the number one reason why crime is problem is some neighborhoods, and why the school system deteriorated. So, getting a college education for some Cleveland residents is like me or you winning the lottery. There are so many internal and external forces pulling on the average Cleveland resident (this also applies to any urban community).  I think Cleveland needs to focus on improving the school system. However, in the short term, Cleveland needs to attract immigrants and young professionals.

what an utterly depressing article

thats true evergrey, but it's a close enough guess and over time there are definite trends. of the three c's i would fairly be comfortable to broadly characterize cleveland's city population as continuing to drop and columbus's to rise. cincy's population is very stagnant. we can at least take that away from it, or no?

 

 

"Close enough guess"?  The Census Bureau awarded Cincy like an extra 30,000 people after the city challenged... and retroactively changed its "population trend" from one of the fastest shrinking cities to one of stagnation ... many population experts suspect that if that higher population number is true... that it doesn't represent a "gain" in population... but the same downward trend played out just amongst slightly bigger numbers due to a historical undercount of a segment of the urban population... and now with Cincy's annual challenge obsession... the numbers get murkier and murkier... especially if you compare them to trends in the 99% of cities where the Census Bureau doesn't apply the "challenge methodology"

 

I'm not blaming Cincy... but I'm blaming the Census Bureau for applying different estimation methodologies to different places based on reacting to political pressure from local jurisdictions... they obviously don't have confidence in their own methodology if they're willing to make these exceptions. 

 

 

I totally agree with McCleveland. I have run into so many Clevelanders who have no clue what is going on their own city. In college, I met a girl from Mayfield Hts who didn't know Cleveland had light rail.

jpop -

 

I agree. However, this is more complicated than just getting education. I'm currently writing a paper on the the loss of  manufacturing jobs and its effects  on African-American men. (what I found also applies to every region with a disproportionate amount of blue collar jobs). Forty years of massive jobs losses have left many Cleveland neighborhoods in turmoil. The change from a manufacturing economy to a service one, left thousands of families economically stranded. I recently read 70 percent of all  males in northern industrial cities held manufacturing jobs between 1967-87. Therefore, when these jobs disappeared entire communities were devastated. Think about it, in less than one generation an entire community lost all economic traction. Almost all the problems we see in this city is directly correlated with the loss of our manufacturing base. It is the the number one reason why crime is problem is some neighborhoods, and why the school system deteriorated. So, getting a college education for some Cleveland residents is like me or you winning the lottery. There are so many internal and external forces pulling on the average Cleveland resident (this also applies to any urban community).  I think Cleveland needs to focus on improving the school system. However, in the short term, Cleveland needs to attract immigrants and young professionals.

 

I agree. It's definitely more complicated than just simply getting an education. College/further education costs a pretty penny these days.

 

I think the federal government needs to pull our asses out of Iraq and start focusing on our problems at home, including making sure more people less fortunate economically can get a better leg up. I'm not asking for complete hand-outs necessarily (though, in some cases, it might be beneficial and necessary), but as a college student myself, it's difficult to weigh the cost of being burdened with years of debt to moving elsewhere where it might be easier to get a job one can already do with the skills one already has.

 

It's a risk, for sure .. but it's one I'm willing to take (in terms of being saddled with debt for now) because I WANT a better future, not just economically, but also general life fulfillment in terms of a more exciting career. I think that, along with economic aid, there needs to be an openness from people to getting an education. Because of people working blue-collar jobs for so long, I think it's become difficult even mentally to overcome that hurdle of going back to school.

If anything positive can come from this news, which is really no news at all, I hope its that the outer-ring 'burbs see that the trend of population decline is spreading outwards. Just look at all the red (meaning negative growth) on that map that accompanied the article. I hope they can now see that their fate is tied to Cleveland proper, and they'll be in the same boat as some of Cleveland's worse neighborhoods if the mentality doesn't change to that of preservation and restoration from one of rampant outward expansion. Hopefully they can see that we need to work together to improve Greater Cleveland.

 

That said it will be interesting to see how Greater Cleveland emerging as a medical powerhouse, improvements being made to the region's universities and the performance of companies located here will change demographic trends in the next decade.

thats true evergrey, but it's a close enough guess and over time there are definite trends. of the three c's i would fairly be comfortable to broadly characterize cleveland's city population as continuing to drop and columbus's to rise. cincy's population is very stagnant. we can at least take that away from it, or no?

 

 

"Close enough guess"?  The Census Bureau awarded Cincy like an extra 30,000 people after the city challenged... and retroactively changed its "population trend" from one of the fastest shrinking cities to one of stagnation ... many population experts suspect that if that higher population number is true... that it doesn't represent a "gain" in population... but the same downward trend played out just amongst slightly bigger numbers due to a historical undercount of a segment of the urban population... and now with Cincy's annual challenge obsession... the numbers get murkier and murkier... especially if you compare them to trends in the 99% of cities where the Census Bureau doesn't apply the "challenge methodology"

 

I'm not blaming Cincy... but I'm blaming the Census Bureau for applying different estimation methodologies to different places based on reacting to political pressure from local jurisdictions... they obviously don't have confidence in their own methodology if they're willing to make these exceptions. 

 

 

 

except you are stating one example in time. maybe i wasnt clear. i meant over the longer haul of the estimates -- see the link below -- since 2000. are you saying even doing that is a bad idea?

 

because i am saying it does not matter if the numbers are perfectly correct if the estimated overall trends remain the same.

 

so later on cinci successfully challenges one year, maybe cleveland and others do the same some other time? seems to me that political stuff is random and evens out over time.

 

otoh maybe cleveland is too politically weak to ever successfully challenge? i'd hate to think that, in fact i'd highly doubt it, but it would certainly compound the problem:

 

http://www.census.gov/popest/cities/tables/SUB-EST2007-04-39.xls

 

FWIW, Harper's did a story 35/40 years ago on "America's Worst Cities" and Cleveland won all the awards for having a poorly educated populace. Some things change, and well some don't.

 

To an earlier comment, I didn't spend much time in Buffalo, but Niagara Falls looks like a bomb went off, starting at the Falls heading all the way to Tonawanda (sp?). Camden seems to be in better shape that Niagara Falls.

So, getting a college education for some Cleveland residents is like me or you winning the lottery.

 

Not really.  I can't work real hard to win a lottery, but anyone person of average intelligence, if they work hard enough, can get a college education.  Constantly telling them otherwise is part of the problem.

X-

 

Sorry, this is a little off-topic. All I was saying is that some Cleveland residents are under tremendous stress (crime, poverty, and broken families), and going to college is the last thing on their mind. Sometimes we forgot that going to college is a pretty rigorous process. If you’re 17 and you parents are nonexistent, how are you going to fill out a college application or apply for FAFSA? Some of these kids are so isolated they don’t even understand the college process. I know what I was like at 17, and filling out the FAFSA was the last thing on my mind. If my parents weren't around I don't know where I would be. There is a reason why children under 18 are called infants or minors. Most teenagers don’t have the capacity to make rational life decisions. That’s why I said Cleveland needs to focus on immigrants and young professionals. A lot of the issues we see in the city (any city) are cultural issues that may take generations to undue.

 

this is a serious issue IMO

 

we all know the census is crap, but the figure matters for funding, perception, and crime rate. i cant find anything about it but i do know that cities over 500,000 get a significant amount more in federal funding.

 

poor and minority communities are historically undercounted and cleveland is majority minority with a high poverty rate

 

its not just cleveland that is being undercounted........cuyahoga county continues to lose population and many suburbs are undercounted with almost as high a percentage loss as the city of cleveland

 

New Census Numbers Expected, City Ready To Respond

 

Last Update: 7/09 9:12 pm

Related Links

 

    * Cincinnati Mayor Ready To Challenge To New Population Data

 

Web produced by: Neil Relyea

 

Cincinnati's mayor is ready for another fight over US Census figures.

 

New numbers are due out on Thursday and Mayor Mark Mallory says he'll challenge them if they're even one person short of what he thinks they should be.

 

The city won a 2005 census appeal and added 22,000 people.

 

The stakes are high, since over $300 billion for federal programs are based on the population data.

 

"Eighty-percent of the commercial retail decisions are made using census data," said Mallory.

 

"There's an awful lot of private investment that happens based on census date," said Mallory. "So, it's extremely important that we get this number right."

 

The mayor has named planning director Charles Graves and Donna Baker of the Urban League to co-chair a "Complete Count Committee" heading toward the 2010 census.

 

Copyright 2008 The E.W. Scripps Co. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

 

 

maybe we could get a petition started and bring it to city council urging them to fight the census estimates

 

when will the census claim cleveland has dipped below 400k? 2010?

 

 

C-Dawg et al,

 

I will not let you take this down a Cleveland vs Cincinnati Route. We will not be comparing Any of the three C's here. I do not care if you think MSA XYZ should have county ABC, I don't care if your prefer DMAs, I don't care if your great grandfather was Mr. Census.

If Cleveland doesn't believe the numbers are accurate, tell mayor Jackson to file a challenge.

That’s why I said Cleveland needs to focus on immigrants and young professionals. A lot of the issues we see in the city (any city) are cultural issues that may take generations to undue.

 

I think I disagree with the first part of your statement. I think MORE needs to be done with the people who are in the city already. I feel like the first part of your statement says that the city should turn its back on its residents and just pursue people who will push out the current, poorer residents out. I think that's a really horribly dangerous thing, and while I'm sure it's not what you're saying, in a way, I think that that's what the city government is saying.

 

I think that much, much more needs to be done to encourage people who reside in the city NOW to get an education and get a better leg up on life. I think that much of the problem is that so many of these people are so terribly discouraged, that they just don't have hope for themselves anymore. Something needs to be done to change this mentality, to show them that there is, in fact, opportunity for them if they're willing to take it .. someone to believe in them, to help them get out of the hole they feel so trapped in.

 

I don't think that enough of this happens .. but I think it would be an amazing benefit to a city to have an organization like that. Rather than focus on NEW people coming in, I wish more would be done with the current residents. By ignoring them and focusing on bringing new people in, you're placing a band-aid on a problem that NEEDS to be FIXED, not bandaged.

I have to agree with Jpop-tart.

 

We do need to fix the - real and perceived - notion that there are no jobs in Cleveland (or the region).

 

The problem (for some) is that we do not have enough qualified people in the area to fill current job vacancies and I doubt we will have them for job vacancies coming online.

 

This problem goes back to the 50s when people didn't graduate, did graduate but didn't aspire to get better educated or live outside of the box, you could find good work and live an average life.

 

Now that those high wage/low education level jobs are gone and we virtually have no retail section in the city proper, there are no jobs for no skilled/low skilled labor.

 

Until our convention & tourism and retail local economy improves, it will get harder and harder for those who don't have white collar potential.

I think the suburban retail opportunities have increased greatly in the last 5 years as which at that time, Cleveland market was an untapped retail area.  Additions such as SYC, Citiview Center, Crocker Park, Legacy Village, Eton, Avon Commons, Westgate, Bainbridge Commons, Great Northern Expansions west on Bkpk.  Granted, most are suburban locations, they still provide employment for GED or non college degreed individuals. 

 

I think the biggest problem, and one that will improve, is the fact that a lot of the baby bommers are in an age group that grew up in the industrial era of Cleveland, and as MTS said, did not need college to succeed in this town.  Most of their kids however did go to college due to the fact that they were not surrounded by booming steel mills and auto plants and tool and die shops.  Hopefully, all of these kids do not discover or fall in love with Chicago, NYC, LA, San Fran etc.  Kids need to understand what quality of life and cost of living means.

I have hope that this will all change. I have hope that leadership will realize these problems and try to rectify them.

 

But it will take time. The key is to not ignore them.

I think the suburban retail opportunities have increased greatly in the last 5 years as which at that time, Cleveland market was an untapped retail area.  Additions such as SYC, Citiview Center, Crocker Park, Legacy Village, Eton, Avon Commons, Westgate, Bainbridge Commons, Great Northern Expansions west on Bkpk.  Granted, most are suburban locations, they still provide employment for GED or non college degreed individuals. 

 

I disagree.  Those jobs are harder to get for someone in the city as they and further away and harder to get to on a regular basis, especially for those that use public transportation.  KJP has touched on this in various transportation threads so I wont go into detail.

 

I would bet that the MAJORITY of those working at suburban malls live in close proximity.

 

I think the biggest problem, and one that will improve, is the fact that a lot of the baby bommers are in an age group that grew up in the industrial era of Cleveland, and as MTS said, did not need college to succeed in this town.  Most of their kids however did go to college due to the fact that they were not surrounded by booming steel mills and auto plants and tool and die shops.  Hopefully, all of these kids do not discover or fall in love with Chicago, NYC, LA, San Fran etc.  Kids need to understand what quality of life and cost of living means.

 

Thats the problem Cleveland (and Ohio) has to fight the cancer known as "Inferiority Complex" and market the city better while simultaneously fixing quality of life issues.

 

There are so many thing in the city itself that people in the region don't know about.  There are too many people that generalize about certain areas of the city.  I.E, the "east side" comments.

The silver lining, in my opinion, to the news that our regional count is declining is the fact that with the fall of Cleveland, so goes the rest of the region.  I mean here it is, in the numbers folks.  It would be great if the PD could push this agenda to make the local public further realize that we are all in it together.  How much of a loss do we have to take in order for people to get it?

 

I know I went off topic, but I felt it went hand-in-hand with the discussion.

Cross posted from the Ohio Graphics thread. MTS may be on to something. According to the data released from Ohio Secretary of State and published in the PD there are 1,093,943 registered voters in Cuyahoga County.

 

1,295,958 - 2007 population estimate

1,093,943 - 2008 registered voters

 

That means 84% of all people are registered to vote in the county. One of these numbers aren't right, that is impossible.

 

My home county of Broward has a 2007 population estimate of 1,759,591 with 988,610 registered voters (56%) that is more realistic.

 

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2008/10/ohio_voter_registration_surges.html

 

^^ It looks like Cuyahoga County has made up for a lot of the losses. What is the net gain for the state?

 

p.s. Please don't make me go over to cleveland.com to find out.

 

This is why I personally believe that there are more residents of Cleveland/Cuyahoga county than the census states.  Off topic, yes?  But I do believe somethign is not right.  Something just doesn't add up. 

I think that's a VERY good question!

I still feel as though we could be 75-100k short in the number of residents of the City of Cleveland.  It would not surprise me if there were 550k people in the city and loser to 1.6-1.9 million in the county.

 

I would also bet the adjacent counties population counts are inaccurate.

I think I am still registered in Cuyahoga county although I have not lived there for years.  I think if you move out of state, it is hard for election officials to track.

 

I never thought of unregistering