August 15, 200915 yr I've said this before, and I really think it's an important point that no one really talks about. Portland's demographics are very different than Cincinnati's. It's generally a richer, whiter, and safer city than Cincy, so expecting results similar to Portland is disingenuous, IMO. Richer? Multnomah County's household income is $48,883, Hamilton County's is $48,416 Multnomah County's poverty rate is 15.2, Hamilton County's is 12.8 http://www.city-data.com/county/Multnomah_County-OR.html BTW, I don't think people are expecting identical results; we're expecting results in the range of the feasibilty study which factored in demographics. What relevance do the county statistics have when discussing a loop in downtown and OTR?
August 15, 200915 yr ^ probably more then comparing city limits that are disparate (Portland, 575,000 in 145 sq miles, Cincy 333,000 in 76 sq miles). I thought using the county limits, which are similar, would be a better comparison. If you only want to compare the neighborhoods containing the streetcar, I guess we would need to compare individual census tracks! Be my guest.
August 15, 200915 yr It's interesting to see how the discussion comes full circle. If you take a look back through this extensive thread you will find this discussion about Portland vs. Cincinnati several times. The fact is that Portland's modern streetcar system is exactly what we're proposing here. Sure the demographics are different between the two cities, downtowns, and regions, but the point is to compare like systems...from there you can adjust for the demographic/economic differences in your projections (as Cincy did in its feasibility study).
August 16, 200915 yr Streetcar Lifespan Question I have heard estimates of streetcar life spans of something like 25-30 years. I was watching some PBS travel thing and they were talking about European passenger rail cars still in operation since the 1940s. Is it a heavy v light rail car thing ? Are the estimates for the newer cars just more conservative ? What's accounting for the difference ?
August 16, 200915 yr ^ It's thirty years before a major overhaul. If they're well-maintained and overhauled at this interval, their service lives are indefinite. Some of Cincinnati's 1930's-vintage cars are still rolling around somewhere in the world today.
August 16, 200915 yr At some point spare parts run out for discontinued cars and other kinds of vehicles. On ocean-going ships, the engineers have a full-service machine shop on board and are able to machine parts while in transit. Most of those engines are designed to still operate with one or more cylinders disabled. The problem I foresee for today's transit vehicles is that unlike old streetcars and like newer cars they surely have a wide network of sensors that comprise a feedback system into a computer. Those sensors will be impossible to manufacture after they stop making them, and that will mean the true end of the vehicles, even if other components still have a lot of life in them. I recently spent $550 to have the crankshaft sensor on my car replaced, which is a $40 part. Cars didn't used to have crankshaft sensors, and so didn't have as many reasons to completely tear apart the car to get at them. When the sensor went out, it created the effect of a blown transmission, with the transmission getting confused on hills. I recently got to see how a modern car's electronic timing computer adjusts for a misaligned timing belt (and bent valves), and that's truly incredible. Overall cars run a lot better now and are more fuel efficient because of the computers, but servicing them has gotten much more difficult. You can't even begin to work on a modern car without being able to read the computer codes, and that alone is putting a lot of small mechanics out of business because they have to spend thousands to stay current with new models. Some transit systems have kept themselves alive by raiding their own junked streetcars for parts, but I don't think that's really going to work in the future. Basically when they announce they're going to stop producing your city's type of transit vehicle, the transit agency needs to spend a couple million dollars stocking up on obscure parts. The cars now have much more complicated doors, they have air conditioning, and so on. Part of the reason why the old PCC streetcars continue to be used in a few places in America and in poor areas around the world is because they are so easy to work on. If you look at a Model T or other really old car, they were very simple and very easy to work on. Things weren't tucked so deep in the car so you didn't have to spend 4 hours taking everything off to get to one thing. The good news is Cincinnati would not be alone in having the Skoda vehicles, since several cities already have them or are going to get them. We would not be alone in owning them, like when we were the only city with 2-pole and broad gauge streetcars.
August 16, 200915 yr ^ It's thirty years before a major overhaul. If they're well-maintained and overhauled at this interval, their service lives are indefinite. Some of Cincinnati's 1930's-vintage cars are still rolling around somewhere in the world today. Cleveland RTA's light-rail cars were built in 1980 and are going through their mid-life overhaul. Here's what these nearly 30-year-old cars look like now...... Old car (about to go out for rehab) next to the rebuilt car (just back from rehab!)... The interiors look and smell brand-new.... Have a seat.... On the property at Shaker Square (next to un-rebuilt car with a 1996 Trains-of-Fame paint scheme).... At the Green Road station at the east end of the Green Line in Shaker Heights.... In service with a crowd downtown-bound.... Traveling through to the Waterfront Line after picking up Red Line transfers, all bound for a concert at Browns Stadium.... "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
August 16, 200915 yr Are those padded seats I see? And, I love the mean mug you're getting from the girl in the last photo.
August 16, 200915 yr Yes, padded. And yes, a mean but pretty mug. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
August 17, 200915 yr ^----"It's interesting to see how the discussion comes full circle. If you take a look back through this extensive thread you will find this discussion about Portland vs. Cincinnati several times." That's because John Schneider makes periodic trips to Portland, which invites all the comparisons.
August 17, 200915 yr "Last time I checked total family income in the Portland region was almost identical to Cincinnati's." www.city-data.com Portland 2008 population: 557,706 Population change since 2000: +5.4% Estimated median household income in 2007: $47,143 Estimated per capita income in 2007: $28,305 Cincinnati 2008 populaton: 333,336 Population change since 2000: +0.6% Estimated median household income in 2007: $33,006 Estimated per capita income in 2007: $23,960 I've said this before, and I really think it's an important point that no one really talks about. Portland's demographics are very different than Cincinnati's. It's generally a richer, whiter, and safer city than Cincy, so expecting results similar to Portland is disingenuous, IMO. isn't the point of the streetcar to attract 'richer' residents? So, is Portland's per capita income is greater than Cincy's b/c of tranist infrastructure?
August 17, 200915 yr Portland also has a somewhat higher cost of living than Cincinnati, which may be reflected in the median income numbers. Somebody who maintains a merely middle-class lifestyle in Portland would be able to maintain an upper-middle-class lifestyle in Cincinnati on the same salary.
August 17, 200915 yr Author ^----"It's interesting to see how the discussion comes full circle. If you take a look back through this extensive thread you will find this discussion about Portland vs. Cincinnati several times." That's because John Schneider makes periodic trips to Portland, which invites all the comparisons. Even absent those trips, Cincinnati is planing on building a 7.9 miles streetcar system using modern Skoda cars; Portland has a 7.8 mile streetcar system using modern cars.
August 17, 200915 yr Portland's data is all over distorted by being a major escape point for fleeing Californians (this also explains its relatively over priced real estate and high unemployment).
August 17, 200915 yr The comparison of the two cities is also distorted because Portland City data covers a larger percent of the metro area then Cincinnati's does. That's why I compared Hamilton County to Multnomah County to get a more balanced comparison.
August 17, 200915 yr >being a major escape point for fleeing Californians And Seattle. The West Coast doesn't have as many cities, but the point is Portland is getting these people and Eugene or another place in Oregon isn't. I hear Boise, ID is getting a very small amount. But Portland is also getting people who are moving speculatively from the midwest and east coast to the west coast. Many people believe that Cincinnati should be the clear #2 Midwest city and the primary reason it isn't is because it has turned itself inside out for cars. The economics holding back downtown and the neighborhood business districts don't change until rail happens.
August 17, 200915 yr ^ I'm sure you wouldn't have to look back many years to find stories about how Portland wasn't growing. It's not just Californians. There are a bunch of Ohioans in general and Cincinnatians in particular living there now. We run into them all the time. On the trip Mayor Mallory led out there, three ex-Cincinnatians, all under 25, joined us. They're not coming back.
August 17, 200915 yr Some of you guys can argue the differences and similarities of county, city, and zip code numbers all day long, but at the end of the day Cincy is stuck with a big ol :roll: bowl of "Do Nothing"! Essentially that's what we've had for decades and will continue to have unless we change direction. The numbers in Portland are there. Economic development has followed the lines. So, in 10 years will Portland be better off than they are today? In 10 years will Cincy be in a better position than we are today? Is it out of the question for us to still be wrangling about whether streetcars are for Cincy by then? Streetcars AND Light Rail will HAVE to be the leading economic drivers for Southwest Ohio in a post recession/depression world! The days of opening Ikea's and outlet malls while expanding Interstates to 10 lanes with noise barrier walls and calling that economic development are OVER.
August 17, 200915 yr Author How We Compare in Transit Ridership to Peer Cities? Cincinnati Transit Ridership in 1946, 2009
August 17, 200915 yr "On the trip Mayor Mallory led out there, three ex-Cincinnatians, all under 25, joined us. They're not coming back." Portland +3. Cincinnati -3. Stop taking people to Portland! (just kidding. :-D)
August 17, 200915 yr Author Cincinnati ranked 6th in 1840. In 1840 the Ohio/Mississippi/Missouri River System was the superhighway of the interior of the country.
August 17, 200915 yr Those numbers only drive home the fact that Cincy is at a disadvantage in competing with those cities. I am personally afraid of what happens here in a decade if we don't take these numbers to heart. (And that is coming from somebody who resides in the burbs.) It starts with educating the masses and changing the mindset.
August 17, 200915 yr Streetcars AND Light Rail will HAVE to be the leading economic drivers for Southwest Ohio in a post recession/depression world! The days of opening Ikea's and outlet malls while expanding Interstates to 10 lanes with noise barrier walls and calling that economic development are OVER. Amen Brother! Keep preaching it!
August 17, 200915 yr As a follow-up to the recent discussion about fare collection, the Transport Politic blog just posted a story about the LA Metro's efforts to switch from a proof-of-payment system to having fare gates. They have to pay the upfront cost of installing the equipment, which is quite expensive, but they save money on personnel costs and by presumably recovering fares from a greater percentage of the ridership. They're only installing the fare gates at a few high-traffic stations, though... The system includes street-running light rail segments where it isn't possible (nor desirable) to have fare gates. The story includes the figure that approximately 6% of the LA ridership consists of fare evaders, and the author makes the case that fare gates only make sense in high-traffic transit systems such as the NYC subway. (I'm not sure I agree with his methodology; he factors in the upfront cost of installing the fare control equipment, but fails to deduct the personnel costs of having random spot checks.) A certain number of people will always find a way around paying their fare, but eventually you reach a point where it costs more money to avert that small percentage of fare evaders than you'd recoup if everybody simply paid their fare.
August 17, 200915 yr A subway is a natural for fare gates because there are a limited number of entrances. A typical bus route with stops every block or so will not work as well. Curitaba, Brazil has a unique system where they operate extra large buses on exclusive rights of way with fare gates as a subway. Also, fare gates relieve the driver of the task of collecting fares. In the old days, Cincinnati's streetcars were operated by a two man crew, a driver and a fare collector.
August 17, 200915 yr "In 1840 the Ohio/Mississippi/Missouri River System was the superhighway of the interior of the country." You are absolutely correct. All of those immigrants that came to Cincinnati via Pittsburgh on the Ohio River are who built OTR in the first place. We will likely NEVER have an event like that again. Cincinnati had incredible density in those days, and since then (1890) the density has only dropped. OTR is no longer an immigrant neighborhood. Furthermore, all of the natural resources in the Ohio River Valley upstream of Cincinnati were easily shipped down the Ohio to Cincinnati. This included iron from Pittsburgh and the Hanging Rock region of Ohio, and many square miles of timber and wood products. Products of the Miami Valley came to Cincinnati by canal. Today, the forests are logged out, the steel industry moved first to the Great Lakes and then overseas, and the canal is gone. There is no real reason for OTR to exist near the Ohio River like it used to. The river connection is still important, but Cincinnati has dropped in rank from 6th to about 35th, depending on which ranking you use. Cincinnati was dropping in rank even as our streetcars were still running. In fact, Cincinnati was dropping in rank BEFORE our first streetcar. I'm all for the streetcar, but I don't believe that the streetcar by itself will change the major trends.
August 18, 200915 yr I'm all for the streetcar, but I don't believe that the streetcar by itself will change the major trends. I don't think anyone is arguing that the streetcar will change population trends by its lonesome. Streetcars are almost always part of a larger transit network.
August 18, 200915 yr Even with a multi-modal transit system, Cincinnati's population will not substantially increase. You will see a net migration into the city with improved transit, but many of the residents will be coming from already populated suburbs or from other parts of the state.
August 18, 200915 yr Isn't the real problem with urban competition these days is that location is mostly incidental to the local economy, which means cities have to find something to differentiate themselves in some way? The idea, I guess, is that the Cincinnati can provide a truly unique urban environment in the core that is made especially desirable with the highest quality transit options.
August 18, 200915 yr True, but if Cincinnati has a general anti-business/corporate climate, then it cannot attract those jobs to the core when they could otherwise find it cheaper to locate in West Chester -- as an example. There is a reason why suburban office parks boom and flourish -- they are cheaper, have available highway access (or any transportation access), and are near population center(s). In West Chester's case -- Dayton and Cincinnati.
August 18, 200915 yr Cities have lots of residual expenses that new development doesn't. Cities should avoid competing at lowest common denominator battles, but one argument for the streetcar is that it allows for a sizable core set of neighborhoods that could be cheap to live in because you don't need a car to move around. It provides some competitive advantage. I actually believe that the tax argument is often overplayed though the cost of land is probably more important than people realize.
August 18, 200915 yr Author Cities have lots of residual expenses that new development doesn't. Cities should avoid competing at lowest common denominator battles, but one argument for the streetcar is that it allows for a sizable core set of neighborhoods that could be cheap to live in because you don't need a car to move around. It provides some competitive advantage. I actually believe that the tax argument is often overplayed though the cost of land is probably more important than people realize. Not only the cost of land is important, but the easy of assembling large contiguous parcels is much easier in greenfield development as well. You negotiate with one farmer instead of 40 individual property owners.
August 18, 200915 yr As we saw in Norwood, all it takes is a couple people to fight a transformation and you end up with a total clusterf@ck.
August 18, 200915 yr As we saw in Norwood, all it takes is a couple people to fight a transformation and you end up with a total clusterf@ck. You say that like it's a bad thing. Two completely different situations. In the case of Norwood, the developers and the city were *completely* in the wrong.
August 18, 200915 yr >assembling large contiguous parcels Cincinnati lacks the flat land necessary for attracting light industry, and its various attempts at developing offices on isolated hillside and hilltops are all a bit awkward.
August 18, 200915 yr Cincinnati shouldn't be trying to compete with the exurbs on a pure price-point basis. That's a losing proposition, like the Netherland Plaza trying to compete with a Motel 6. The hotels know their target market, and the Netherland competes with Westin and Hyatt while Motel 6 competes with Super 8 and Econolodge. Cincinnati needs to adopt the same mentality. The city's competition isn't Mason, it's Indianapolis and Columbus. For the past 50 years cities thought they could beat the suburbs by trying to become more like them, and that mentality only gave us things like the Skywalk and the Pogue's parking garage -- and the suburbs won that fight anyway. What Cincinnati needs to do is highlight the positives of being a vibrant urban area, and enhance that urban core to a degree that companies are willing to pay the extra few bucks to locate there. The city will always cost more than the burbs, but to many companies, the benefits of being in a traditional city outweigh the added cost. The streetcar -- and effective mass transit in general -- is among the most crucial of those benefits.
August 18, 200915 yr I'd say that downtown Cincinnati DOES compete with Mason, and downtown is losing.
August 19, 200915 yr Author I'd say that downtown Cincinnati DOES compete with Mason, and downtown is losing. If that is the case, we need invest in projects that reinforce the advantages of downtown-density and centrality. the Streetcar is a project that will do that. We can't just keep adding parking garages and highway lanes. It is cheaper and easier for the suburbs to add lanes and parking.
August 19, 200915 yr Addressing Common Streetcar Questions and Concerns If you like straight, quick answers with not a lot of reading and lots of great pictures, I suggest you check that out.
August 19, 200915 yr I'd say that downtown Cincinnati DOES compete with Mason, and downtown is losing. Downtown Cincinnati is losing to downtown Mason? Seriously?
August 19, 200915 yr No, but it would be fair to say that downtown Cincinnati has lost businesses to Mason in general. The suburban office campuses at Mason and other suburban locations (e.g. West Chester) have a strong pull and it cannot be discounted.
August 19, 200915 yr I've never appreciated the architecture (and sidewalks and streets for that matter) in downtown Cincinnati more than after a visit to Mason to attend a tennis tournament. Maybe I've missed something up there.
August 19, 200915 yr I've never appreciated the architecture (and sidewalks and streets for that matter) in downtown Cincinnati more than after a visit to Mason to attend a tennis tournament. Maybe I've missed something up there. You obviously weren't in the right part of town: There's a reason they call Mason "Ohio's best-kept secret." :)
August 19, 200915 yr When you go to the top of Victoria's Peak there are periscopes that you can use to look into some of those apts. Alot of them are very very nice many priced in the $10 - $15,000 per month range. And that's not a typo. But anyway, everything in the Cincinnati area competes against everything else. Look, the region has no leadership, no central core that people stand up to attention for. All there is is a cycle of cannibalization. The problem with everything here is that really we all shouldn't be talking about a streetcar, or light rail or whatever. The real issue is that we don't have centralized govt. Cincinnati is 70+sq miles with about 330,000+ in population but it's in a region of 2mm+ so that obviously in my eyes at least points to a much bigger problem. That being said Mason still sucks.
August 19, 200915 yr Mason is an example of a well run, efficient city government. They've done an amazing job of annexing surrounding lands, and have used business taxes to keep residential property taxes extremely low, all while dealing with one of the fastest growing populations in Ohio. Not to mention they've maintained excellent schools throughout all of that. That's a strong point for metro Cincinnati though, don't think of it as competition. Hopefully the streetcar will lead to bigger transit ideas, and an I-71 light rail will link the wildly successful north/northeast suburbs to the core.
August 19, 200915 yr >The suburban office campuses at Mason and other suburban locations People might not believe this but Atrium I, probably the most expensive building in Cincinnati in the early 1980's, rented six floors to Delta for a "reservations center" -- essentially a call center. The "Delta Girls", as my mother called them (she worked elsewhere in building), got 6 weeks paid vacation. After deregulation Delta was getting killed by that lease and got the city to pony up money to build the reservations center over by the convention center just in time for the internet to be invented and most airline reservations to move online. I think that Delta building is basically empty now. Point is, downtown office vacancy is not always "the city's" fault; companies can make bad decisions like that.
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