November 9, 201311 yr Does it take a popular vote to get a special taxing district to pay for some of the operating costs or can council do that? Would a compromise solution be best to keep the project from being cancelled? It would be win-win and set a standard for future expansion. Not ideal, but it could open up a conversation.
November 9, 201311 yr >And who is Cranley going to meet with in DC? Cranley is going to get something out of these people for agreeing to go forward with the streetcar. >Got a suspicious feeling Cranley will ask pg or mann to be his vm on the condition of a no vote against the streetcar PG is acting pro-streetcar at the moment, possibly in the hope that Cranley will dangle that carrot. Also, a mayoral recall charter amendement could award the mayor's seat to council's top vote-getter, in which case PG as possible vice-mayor would be at odds with Cranley, plus the PG machine would see the possibility to oust Cranley. Mayor recall charter amendment would sunset in 2021.
November 9, 201311 yr Also, a mayoral recall charter amendement could award the mayor's seat to council's top vote-getter, in which case PG as possible vice-mayor would be at odds with Cranley, plus the PG machine would see the possibility to oust Cranley. Mayor recall charter amendment would sunset in 2021. Please tell me this is not becoming a thing. I hate the election results as much as anyone, but this is a terrible way to govern.
November 9, 201311 yr I'm not sure why people are afraid to get aggressive. Drive a wedge right into the middle of their little gang, make it impossible for Cranley to govern.
November 9, 201311 yr I'm not sure why people are afraid to get aggressive. Drive a wedge right into the middle of their little gang, make it impossible for Cranley to govern. Exactly. Obviously the polite way does not work against them nor does it get us any results. Qualls was polite this whole election and it got her nothing Either we fight fire with fire or we simply just let 700wlw/COAST/Smitherman/Cranley implement pre-Mallory policy
November 9, 201311 yr >Qualls was polite this whole election and it got her nothing Qualls does not have the personality to be FOP spokeswoman Kathy Herrill, but on the occasions when Qualls did call out Cranley the effect was devastating. His lack of minority inclusion in his development in Price Hill at the African-American debate, for example. Plus, I don't think that Qualls really understands the sort of playground fights many of us were in as boys. His greatest weakness is that he was anointed the golden boy at a young age and is simply not used to direct, personal criticism of any kind. Further, his face turned red when his hypocrisies were called out, and he often responded with awkward comebacks, like when he talked about beating his wife. Keep attacking him, get the soundbites, put them on the radio and on TV. Portray him as unstable, like Toronto's mayor. In 1988 George HW Bush ran away with that election because of the Willy Horton thing and that footage of sewage pouring into Boston Harbor. Dukakis? Weak on crime and doesn't care about your personal health. Bam. Cranley? Corrupt. From a rich family. Wrecked the pension fund, used city money for his (failed) development project (only 2 condos sold!), never paid back loan. Claims to be from the west side, but moved to the east side to eventually challenge Brad Wenstrup for Ohio's 2nd district house seat. We never heard any of that, only vague attacks on the Incline project.
November 9, 201311 yr Former councilman, Greg Harris is organizing some Cranley opposition. Dunno what he's got in mind. Can't tell who's invited to his soiree Friday https://www.facebook.com/events/1447844968775522/?ref_dashboard_filter=upcoming
November 9, 201311 yr Check out JVA Campaigns. They're on facebook and have run some very tough campaigns, one of which unseated the Mayor of Toledo, who had supported SB5, the union busting initiative.
November 9, 201311 yr I'm not sure why people are afraid to get aggressive. Drive a wedge right into the middle of their little gang, make it impossible for Cranley to govern. I'm thrilled with the idea of getting aggressive, but in a progressive way rather than a reactionary way. Get a ballot petition machine like COAST has. Put progressive policies on the ballot every election through initiative. Find a true-believer lawyer like a progressive Finney and sue the pants off Hamilton County for discriminating against the disabled by not helping fund SORTA. Don't shift to a defensive/obstructionist role just because the election sucked. Yes, defend the streetcar, but not through slash-and-burn tactics like a recall.
November 9, 201311 yr Well Cranley, all of our local congressmen, and half of council were elected with slash-and-burn tactics. Everybody knows who won an election, nobody remembers how: And people were upset about Cranley stealing candy from a baby?
November 9, 201311 yr Contrary to what Kevin Osborne reported, there was no Cranley meeting with Valerie Jarrett. Osborne is firmly in John Cranley's back pocket. Between the lack of info on stopping the streetcar story to his Qualls hit piece Cranley push polled and dropped in his lap, to the jim Kiefer quotes, to this "meeting". Just a headsup, He's a mouthpiece for Cranley now
November 10, 201311 yr Does it take a popular vote to get a special taxing district to pay for some of the operating costs or can council do that? Would a compromise solution be best to keep the project from being cancelled? It would be win-win and set a standard for future expansion. I do not know why this hasn't been discussed more. There may be relatively little real pain involved, because of the blanket policy to exempt property taxes for 10 years on building improvements. For example, I live on the streetcar line, and am paying no taxes for 10 years on the improvements I've made; my taxes are as they were for a property that was valued at about $40K. Every one of the condos or townhomes in the city enjoys the same benefit. I'd be totally for paying my share for the streetcar, and I'd be happy if it could be structured as a property tax. By the way, I recently got a notice from the city asking for my approval of a special assessment for lighting. I don't know under what authority this was done, but I don't recall any huge debate about it. I'm not sure why a location-dependent operating levy for the streetcar couldn't be done the same way. Basically, I'd be for this especially if it would take some of the opposition's arguments away from them.
November 10, 201311 yr It's a nice graphic, but all the troglodytes will see is "cancel the streetcar to save $33 million."
November 10, 201311 yr I love the graphic, but it definitely makes it look like its cheaper to cancel the project. The number that should be compared to is the cost to FINISH the project. To finish it is way less than $133 million.
November 10, 201311 yr Add all the costs, thus: KILL THE STREETCAR - LOSE $387,000,000 I can't believe they've suckered us into comparing the costs of construction against the costs of discontinuing construction. How can the latter ever be expected to be more? If this was the standard for comparing public works projects what would get built? It has been a republican dictum that all public projects must be compared according to their net present worth benefits and costs. This is written into certain Federal legislation. It became increasingly popular during Ronald Reagan's term, and there was outcry from the left that the business of government was devolving into a sort of accounting. Now, just because they can't find a cost/benefit study that suits them (what do you think they'd do if they could?) - they invent this idea that so long as a project can be cancelled for less cost than it takes to construct it, it is in the public's interest to do so?! And the public, gullible as always, will buy anything that sort of sounds like it makes sense, because of course Cranley want's to "bring us together" and wouldn't twist facts. Folks, this way of doing things must be roundly rejected, and pointed out for the deceptive strategy that it is. Why don't we compare other projects in the same way? What are the costs of stopping I75 reconstruction versus completing it? How about Fountain Square - wouldn't it have been cheaper to stop that nonsense in the middle, before they spent money on expensive granite paving? It's just ludicrous.
November 10, 201311 yr This Facebook post from Mike McConnell was brought to my attention: "Hey Likers, the weekend is here and for my Cinci friends, Gary Burbank's in town and we're going to rip this place up tonight. I'll tell him you said "hi". Now, speaking of Cincinnati and ripping things up I want to address a Cinci argument that started long before I left town and that's the "Streetcar" project. You just elected a new mayor who says he plans to rip up the tracks that have already been laid in the name of "progress" or "moving forward". He actually said that. And people actually voted for him. Here's my point. The purpose of the project is to create "transit based development" and it WORKS. I don't know why this is - but an awful lot of people will ride a train of whatever kind who would never ride a bus. I don't know why, but it's TRUE. I can look at my own habits. If I go to New York, I ride the subway. Never a bus. In D.C. I go Metro. Never a bus. traveling abroad - Train. Never Bus. I've lived in Chicago three - plus years and have taken the "L" hundreds of times and have never seen the inside of a CTA bus and if you look at your own habits, 90% of you are probably like me as much as you might hate to admit it. Younger people are becoming less and less likely to drive. You want them to move in. You want them to pay taxes. You want them to spend money. You want them to start businesses. You want them to revitalize rundown parts of the city. The numbers have been run then double checked by UC and they show a return of 15 to 1 on investing in the rails. What happened? Massive braincramp? I grew up in the town of Media Pa. (nice place. - google it) The streetcar runs right down the middle of the main street and it is an economic engine. The worry there now is that transit cuts could cut the line and they're not happy. Replace it with a bus and people won't ride it. Again, I don't know why but it's certainly true. Maybe I'll go ask a shrink. Man - that was a lot of typing. Mike"
November 10, 201311 yr Sometimes those not intimately associated with a project or issue can cut through all the noise and straight to the chase. That posting by Mike McConnell did just that. And yes, the loss to Cincinnati from killing the streetcar is $387 million. At minimum. It's tough to put a price on reputation and loss of future opportunities. But they are nonetheless real. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
November 10, 201311 yr Yes, McConnell is from the Philadelphia area, and was generally a transit supporter on 700WLW, until he was replaced by the invidious Doc Thompson. He was then replaced by Scott Sloan, who is from Buffalo and so regularly brings up the Buffalo light rail as his comparison.
November 10, 201311 yr Yes, McConnell is from the Philadelphia area, and was generally a transit supporter on 700WLW, until he was replaced by the invidious Doc Thompson. He was then replaced by Scott Sloan, who is from Buffalo and so regularly brings up the Buffalo light rail as his comparison. You the light-rail line that built as Buffalo and America was deindustrializing and depopulating its cities, or the one that is now playing a part in the local version of North America's back-to-the-city movement? Development soars along Metro Rail By Robert J. McCarthy | News Political Reporter on March 23, 2013 - 11:02 PM Almost three decades after the first subway train rumbled beneath Main Street, Buffalo's Metro Rail system is about to assume the role that was intended and transport thousands of city residents to homes, work and play. The catalyst is the Buffalo Niagara Medical Campus, where 17,500 people are expected to be working soon, and they will depend more than ever on the oft-maligned “train to nowhere.” As a result, at least $91 million has or is soon to be invested in real estate projects – primarily lofts and apartments – near the subway stations. The city hopes to approve 800 to 900 new housing units along the Main Street subway spine by 2016, with as many as 2,000 to 3,000 more in later years, according to Brendan R. Mehaffy, the Brown administration's executive director of strategic planning. READ MORE AT: http://www.buffalonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20130323/CITYANDREGION/130329537/1109 "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
November 10, 201311 yr Buffalo's subway line should be used as an argument for, not against, investment in rail infrastructure. Despite its detractors, it is an incredible asset to the city and region, and even many of its longtime naysayers are beginning to see that. It offers fast, frequent service, and always seems to have a lot of people taking trips on it. Despite being known as a train to nowhere, it does connect many destinations that people have reasons to travel to and from all the time. I was in Columbus this week. I had taken a Greyhound bus there from Cleveland and so didn't have my car to drive around in. I observed that, during the few hours of spare time I had, I had to choose between German Village and the Short North. However, if there had been a streetcar running on High Street, I would have been able to visit both places. I know I could have taken the COTA bus, but I didn't. It would be nice if Ohio's big cities could be thought of as interesting, readable places that outsiders could visit and make their way around in with ease. Of course the main beneficiaries of a streetcar in Columbus or Cincinnati would be the people who are there all the time.
November 10, 201311 yr I wasn't aware that anything was happening there. I was last there in 2009, here was my post with photos of the rail line: http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,20046.msg420420.html#msg420420
November 10, 201311 yr Just read over that thread...good stuff. If only Cincinnati had got federal funding for such a line in the 1970s or 1980s. ;)
November 11, 201311 yr I love the graphic, but it definitely makes it look like its cheaper to cancel the project. The number that should be compared to is the cost to FINISH the project. To finish it is way less than $133 million. No. Here's how the costs need to be calculated. This is one of the important facts that we must, and can, get right, because it destroys one of Cranley's arguments. The key is that the project benefits have to be included. They have never had any credible arguments against those benefits, and they are uncomfortable talking about them. That's because the benefits are real, and they know they are real. Let's assume the costs and benefits figures in the above graphic are correct. I'd suggest the graphic be modified as stated below. I've talked to John Schneider about this and he has the same idea - I'm sure he'll chime in once he returns from Portland with any caveats or corrections, but the gist is this: CITY COSTS TO CANCEL: Fed Reimbursement - $2M Spent funds - $26M Close out - $14.2M Contract breach - $10M Litigation - $1M Duke - $4.6M Lost economic benefits - $287M Total - $344.8M CITY COSTS TO COMPLETE: Remaining city funds for construction - $63M Operating costs, 30 years, 4%, $3M/year - $52M Total - $115M Anyone can quibble about the various figures, but note the main point - the difference between continuing and stopping, in terms of REAL PRESENT WORTH COSTS, is the benefits that we either receive, or give up. It's these benefits that they want to make sure never appear in their calculated "costs" - even though it's the correct way to do it - because it ruins their argument. You can not make a decision to stop the streetcar construction on economic grounds, when benefits are properly accounted for. Let's make certain to insist on not pushing them under the rug. P.S. - Note the costs to cancel, as well as to complete construction, do not include the Federal portion. This is by design. It's just hard, and distracting, to count as a cost something that somebody else is giving you (and then taking away). There's no reason to include such a distraction. (Edited to include operating costs as suggested below.)
November 11, 201311 yr The feds will not like cancelling of the project at all. Doesn't the city continue to fail the clear air act? Why should they help fund on a smog inducing interchange yet the city would kill a green project?
November 11, 201311 yr Sorry if this has already been posted, but it's a good article on where we go from here: http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/blog/2013/11/dont-expect-cranley-to-break-his.html?page=all
November 11, 201311 yr and even if you include 30 years worth of operating costs for the streetcar at $3M annually ($90M total capitalized in today's dollars), its still cheaper to finish ($153M) than to cancel ($345M) by a factor of ~2.25.
November 11, 201311 yr Can anyone post a video of the length of the trench? I can't tell you how many people that think construction is only like a half a block
November 11, 201311 yr In Cranley's press conference the day after the election, he said that he would look at the costs of canceling the streetcar, and if they found it to be cheaper to finish than cancel then the would finish it. Then he went on to say something about also having to look at the costs of the Uptown connector. I get the feeling that no matter what numbers are thrown at him, he will find a way to keep inflating the "final" cost in order to cancel the project. It seems like it will be a difficult task to try to convince PG and Mann to support the project, based on their recent comments, but it's definitely worth a shot...
November 11, 201311 yr In Cranley's press conference the day after the election, he said that he would look at the costs of canceling the streetcar, and if they found it to be cheaper to finish than cancel then the would finish it. Then he went on to say something about also having to look at the costs of the Uptown connector. I get the feeling that no matter what numbers are thrown at him, he will find a way to keep inflating the "final" cost in order to cancel the project. It seems like it will be a difficult task to try to convince PG and Mann to support the project, based on their recent comments, but it's definitely worth a shot... well, he keeps babbling about going to uptown (laying more track) as costing $250M. Dunno where he gets that number.
November 11, 201311 yr In Cranley's press conference the day after the election, he said that he would look at the costs of canceling the streetcar, and if they found it to be cheaper to finish than cancel then the would finish it. Then he went on to say something about also having to look at the costs of the Uptown connector. I get the feeling that no matter what numbers are thrown at him, he will find a way to keep inflating the "final" cost in order to cancel the project. It seems like it will be a difficult task to try to convince PG and Mann to support the project, based on their recent comments, but it's definitely worth a shot... Many bones are being thrown to cranley if he wants to get out of this politically unscathed. The problem is smitherman, winburn, murray, the tea party, and large GOP donors are in his ear. He's also publicly said he's going to stop it numerous times as recently as 3 days ago. He's backed himself in a corner. There is serious pressure on him from all sides. The dem party needs to put their foot down and say enough is enough. Either you are a dem and we'll support you in future campaigns for congress or you can go to the republicans and hope they help you. Mann and flynn have already gone public about their wishes to cancel it. So what happen on dec 1? cranley calls an emergency meeting to immediately halt the project and then they hold the vote later?
November 11, 201311 yr Doc Thompson Show/Time Slot: 11/22/10 - High Speed Rail 11/27/10 - Tom Luken 12/3/10 - Mary Kuhl vs the streetcar 12/8/10 - Streetcar 'boondoggle' & laying off police 12/13/10 - Berding/COAST issues 12/15/10 - Tom Luken 12/22/10 - Jeff Berding 12/23/10 - Norwood mayor to get outsider view on Cincy Politics 12/24/10 - Chris Monzel When he was on council 12/27/10 - Leslie Ghiz 12/28/10 - Cecil Thomas 12/29/10 - Quinlivan 12/30/10 - Leslie Ghiz and Berding 1/17/11 - Tom Luken 2/10/11 - Tom Luken 2/9/11 - Fight the Streetcar 4/13/11 - Says streetcar is probably dead 5/5/11 - Streetcar 5/13/11 - Daryl Parks Streetcar 5/23/11 - 2 hours of Barry Horstman and walking the streetcar route 6/28/11 - Leslie Ghiz 6/30/11 - Dusty Rhodes 7/5/11 - Darryl Parks Streetcar 7/6/11 - Darryl Parks Amy Murray Council 7/13/11 - Amy Murray 7/25/11 - Guest compares streetcar to others across country 7/27/11 - Chris Smitherman Streetcar petition 7/29/11 - Streetcar 8/1/11 - Leslie Ghiz 8/5/11 - Chris Smitherman streetcar petition 8/10/11 - Streetcar petition 8/15/11 - Leslie Ghiz 8/16/11 - New streetcar signs 10/17/11 - Talks about Streetcar issue and how the wording will confuse voters 10/31/11 - Talks about 'waste of 48 million dollar transit center' 11/1/11 - Talks the issue particularly voting for Issue 48 11/7/11 - Urging people to vote for Issue 2 and Issue 48 11/8/11 - Urging people to vote for Issue 2 and Issue 48 11/9/11 - Election results/whining 11/29/11 - Chris Smitherman 11/30/11 - Talks about Chiquita moving to Charlotte. Digs at streetcar 12/8/11 - Chris Smitherman 12/13/11 - Talks about how roads are falling apart while dogging public transportation 12/15/11 - Talks about LaHood and streetcar 12/15/11 - Chris Smitherman 12/16/11 - Talks about new streetcar money 1/3/12 - Talks about streetcar costing more 1/6/12 - Chris Smitherman 1/11/12 - City Council/Signs/Streetcar 1/12/12 - Streetcar 1/13/12 - Chris Finney Scott Sloan 1/31/12 2/16/12 - Chris Smitherman 2/17/12 - Leslie Ghiz 3/13/12 - PG Sittenfeld 3/14/12 - Leslie Ghiz 4/3/12 - Chris Smitherman 4/10/12 - PG Sittenfeld 4/12/12 - Chris Smitherman 5/2/12 - Chris Smitherman 5/15/12 - PG Sittenfeld 5/16/12 - Chris Finney 5/30/12 - Ed Finke 6/4/12 - PG Sittenfeld 6/18/12 - PG Sittenfeld 6/19/12 - Chris Seelbach 6/21/12 - Chris Smitherman 6/25/12 - Laure Quinlivan 6/27/12 - Chris Smitherman 8/23/12 - Dusty Rhodes 9/24/12 - Chris Smitherman 9/25/12 - Chris Seelbach 9/26/12 - Sloan solo 10/8/12 - Tim Burke 10/29/12 - Amy Murray 11/7/12 - Alex Triantiflou 11/7/12 - Amy Murray 11/15/12 - PG Sittenfeld 11/26/12 - PG Sittenfeld 1/31/13 - Steve Chabot 2/11/13 - John Cranley 2/13/13 - Chris Smitherman 2/15/13 - PG Sittenfeld 2/18/13 - Duke Blair Schroeder 2/26/13 - Amy Murray 3/11/13 - Chris Smitherman 4/8/13 - Chris Smitherman 4/17/13 - Chris Smitherman 4/22/13 - Greg Hartmann 4/29/13 - Chris Smitherman 5/1/13 - By himself 5/7/13 - Himself 5/13/13 - Roxanne Qualls 5/14/13 - Amy Murray 5/16/13 - Kathy Harrell 5/20/13 - Chris Smitherman 5/23/13 - Chris Monzel 5/24/13 - Chris Monzel 5/27/13 - Darryl Parks 5/28/13 - Chris Smitherman 6/11/12 - Kathy Harrell 6/12/13 - Chris Smitherman 6/25/13 - Roxanne Qualls 6/27/13 - John Schneider 8/13/13 - Chris Finney 8/23/13 - Todd Portune 10/23/13 - John Cranley 10/24/13 - Roxanne Qualls 10/28/13 - Kevin Osborne 11/6/13 - PG Sittenfeld 11/6/13 - Roxanne Qualls 11/8/13 - Himself Bill Cunningham 6/7/10 - Chris Bortz conflict of interest 7/9/10 - Leslie Ghiz streetcar 7/27/10 - Eric Deters streetcars 9/23/10 - Leslie Ghiz 11/1/10 - Leslie Ghiz 11/12/10 - Streetcar 11/15/10 - Leslie Ghiz streetcar 11/23/10 - Leslie Ghiz 11/30/10 - Dusty Rhodes 11/30/10 - Leslie Ghiz 12/2/10 - Tom Luken 12/21/10 - Leslie Ghiz 12/22/10 - Laure Quinlivan 12/24/10 - Eric Deters - Council all the way to 12/31/10 12/27/10 - Eric Deters 12/28/10 - Eric Deters 12/29/10 - Eric Deters 12/30/10 - Eric Deters 12/31/10 - Eric Deters 2/24/11 - Chris Smitherman 2/25/11 - Leslie Ghiz 3/7/11 - Leslie Ghiz 3/10/11 - Chris Smitherman streetcar 3/18/11 - Jeff Berding 3/29/11 - Laure Quinlivan 3/30/11 - Leslie Ghiz 4/1/11 - Amy Murray 4/8/11 - Wayne Lippert 4/12/11 - Eric Deters streetcar 4/20/11 - Chris Smitherman 5/9/11 - Chris Smitherman 5/12/11 - State Rep Danny Bupt and Leslie Ghiz Streetcar 5/17/11 - Chris Finney 5/24/11 - Leslie Ghiz streetcar 6/1/11 - Leslie Ghiz and Chris Smitherman streetcars 6/9/11 - Chris Smitherman 6/21/11 - Leslie Ghiz 6/30/11 - Leslie Ghiz 7/6/11 - Leslie Ghiz streetcar 7/8/11 - Chris Smitherman 7/21/11 - Caroll with Leslie Ghiz 7/25/11 - Chris Smitherman and Tom Luken 7/27/11 - Leslie Ghiz 8/2/11 - Leslie Ghiz and Chris Smitherman streetcar 8/8/11 - Chris Smitherman streetcar 8/15/11 - Chris Finney streetcar 8/16/11 - Quinlivan/streetcar signs 8/18/11 - Dan Carrol ' dumb streetcars' 10/17/11 - City Issues 11/7/11 - City Issues 11/9/11 - Chris Seelbach Election Coverage hours 1 and 2 Election Aftermath - Chris Smitherman 11/30/11 - Leslie Ghiz 12/6/11 - Chris Smitherman 12/14/11 - Leslie Ghiz 12/15/11 - City Budget PG 12/16/11 - City Budget 12/20/11 - Chris Smitherman 1/11/12 - Quinlivan 1/17/12 - Dan Monk Business Courier/Cost of the Streetcar 1/19/12 - Charlie Winburn and Leslie Ghiz 1/25/12 - Smitherman City Budget 1/31/12 - Smitherman on Council only doing things for political gain(irony at its finest) 2/6/12 - Leslie Ghiz 2/8/12 - Chris Smitherman 2/16/12 - Laure Quinlivan 2/17/12 - Mark Mallory 2/21/12 - Chris Finney 2/23/12 - Chris Smitherman 3/13/12 - Chris Smitherman 4/9/12 - Chris Smitherman 4/10/12 - Leslie Ghiz 4/23/12 - Chris Smitherman 5/16/12 - Chris Smitherman 5/18/12 - Charlie Winburn 5/24/12 - Laure Quinlivan 5/31/12 - Dusty Rhodes 6/1/12 - Chris Smitherman 6/5/12 - Cunningham solo 6/15/12 - Cunningham solo 6/21/12 - John Cranley 6/26/12 - Charlie Winburn 7/9/12 - Dusty Rhodes 7/18/12 - Laure Quinlivan 8/9/12 - Chris Finney 8/9/12 - PG Sittenfeld 8/21/12 - PG Sittenfeld 8/30/12 - Dan Carroll interviewing Chris Finney 8/31/12 - Chris Smitherman 9/12/12 - Chris Seelbach 9/25/12 - Chris Smitherman 9/28/12 - Laure Quinlivan 10/1/12 - Chris Smitherman 10/18/12 - Chris Smitherman 11/5/12 - Chris Smitherman 11/7/12 - Laure Quinlivan 11/9/12 - Dan Carroll election results 11/15/12 - Chris Smitherman 11/27/12 - Chris Smitherman 11/27/12 - PG Sittenfeld 12/11/12 - Chris Smitherman 2/1/13 - Chris Smitherman 2/15/13 - Chris Smitherman 2/18/13 - George Lang 2/20/13 - John Cranley 2/21/13 - Dan Carroll 2/25/13 - Chris Smitherman 3/4/13 - John Cranley 3/6/13 - Laure Quinlivan 3/7/13 - Chris Smitherman 3/11/13 - Amy Murray 3/15/13 - Chris Smitherman 3/27/13 - Chris Smitherman 3/19/13 - Kathy Harrell 4/2/13 - Chris Smitherman 4/5/13 - Yvette Simpson 4/17/13 - Kathy Harrell, Chris Seelbach 4/25/13 - Chris Smitherman 4/26/13 - PG Sittenfeld 4/29/13 - Charlie Winburn 4/30/13 - Yvette Simpson 5/3/13 - Kathy Harrell 5/13/13- Chris Smitherman 5/16/13 - PG Sittenfeld 5/31/13 -Chris Smitherman 6/10/13 - Chris Smitherman 6/24/13 - Chris Smitherman 6/25/13 - YVette Simpson 7/22/13 - Chris Smitherman 7/23/13 - Charlie Luken 7/23/13 - Nathan Bachrach 8/13/13 - John Deitrich 8/28/13 - John Deitrich 9/27/13 - Chris Finney 10/8/13 - Mike Allen 10/8/13 - John Dietrich 10/15/13 - Tom Luken 10/22/13 - Kevin Osborne 10/23/13 - Chris Finney 10/25/13 - Charlie Luken 10/30/13 - John Cranley 11/5/13 - Chris Finney 11/6/13 - Chris Smitherman 11/6/13 - John Cranley 11/6/13 - Leslie Ghiz 11/6/13 - David Mann 11/7/13 - Yvette Simpson 11/7/13 - Alex Triantafilou Sloan/Eddie and Tracy 1/3/10 - Leslie Ghiz -Gap in podcasts- 1/19/11 - Quinlivan 2/22/11 Amy Murray 3/10/11 - Laure Quinlivan streetcar 3/17/11 - Leslie Ghiz 4/12/11 - Streetcar near dead 8/1/11 - Dan Carroll with Kathy Harrell Union Pres of FOP 11/8/11 - Election coverage 11/9/11 - Chris Seelbach and Leslie Ghiz 11/21/11 - Dusty Rhodes 12/17/11 - National underground museum/streetcar 12/28/11 - Leslie Ghiz 2/18/13 - Chris Smitherman 2/28/13 - Chris Smitherman 3/5/13 - Chris Smitherman 3/28/13 - Chris Smitherman 4/9/13 - Chris Smitherman 4/18/13 - Chris Smitherman 4/25/13 - John Cranley 4/29/13 - PG Sittenfeld 4/30/13 - Tom Luken 5/7/13 - Chris Smitherman 5/14/13 - PG Sittenfeld 5/23/13 - PG Sittenfeld 6/17/13 - Chris Smitherman 6/24/13 - Tom Luken 11/6/13 - Kevin Flynn 11/8/13 - PG Sittenfeld Marc Amazon 1/13/11 - Amy Murray 1/14/11 - Jeff Berding 1/19/11 - Leslie Ghiz 1/27/11 - Leslie Ghiz 2/8/11 - Amy Murray 2/17/11 - Streetcar 2/16/11 - Quinlivan 3/16/11 - Amy Murray - Streetcars 3/21/11 - Jeff Berding 3/22/11 - Chris Smitherman - streetcars 3/23/11 - Wayne Lippert 3/24/11 - Chris Smitherman 4/14/11 - Chris Finney - Streetcar 4/21/11 - Amy Murray - streetcar 5/4/11 - Chris Smitherman and Leslie Ghiz- Streetcar 5/5/11 - Chris Bortz - Streetcar 5/12/11 - Charlie Winburn streetcar 6/16/11 - Amy Murray 7/20/11 - Quinlivan 8/4/11 - Chris Smitherman 9/5/11 - Dan Carroll Chris FInney streetcar 10/17/11 - Tom Luken Streetcar 10/25/11 - Jason Gloyd COAST 11/8/11 - Election coverage 11/18/11 - Chris Finney 11/22/11 - Dusty Rhodes 12/15/11 - Jeff Berding streetcar 2/22/12 - Amy Murray 12/26/11 - Chris Smitherman on the mic 1/17/12 - Chris Smitherman 1/26/12 - Chris Smitherman 2/16/12 - Chris Smitherman 2/17/12 - Chris Finney 3/1/12 - Chris Smitherman 4/11/12 - Chris Smitherman 4/16/12 - Laure Quinlivan 5/28/12 - Chris Smitherman 6/21/12 - Chris Smitherman 7/26/12 - Chris Smitherman 11/7/12 - PG Sittenfeld 11/7/12 - Steve Chabot 2/1/13 - Chris Smitherman 3/5/13 - Chris Smitherman 3/7/13 - Laure Quinlivan 3/28/13 - Chris Smitherman 3/28/13 - Amy Murry 4/10/13 - Chris Smitherman 4/11/13 - Amy Murray 5/2/13 - Chris Smitherman 5/13/13 - Chris Smitherman 6/20/13 - PG Sittenfeld 6/24/13 - Himself 7/15/13 - Amy Murray 8/1/13 - Chris Smitherman 8/24/13 - No podcast available but teaser 11/1/13 - No Guest 11/5/13 - Chris Smitherman 11/5/13 - PG Sittenfeld 11/5/13 - Election Coverage 11/5/13 - Election Coverage 11/5/13 - Amy Murray Dan Carrol show Doesn't have active podcasts yet(Many many smitherman/coast/streetcar shows though) 1/15/11 - Chris Finney - Streetcar 10/11/13 - Chris Finney - Streetcar Gary Jeff Walker 11/6/10 - Streetcars while laying off police 8/6/11 - S&P rating attributed to streetcar(2 hours) 10/29/11 - Wasteful Local gov 2/4/12 - Cincy a 2nd class city(2 hours) 2/25/12 - Streetcar disaster 6/23/12 - Cincy cuts 12/8/12 - Streetcar, Devil 2/2/13- Streetcar 2/16/13 - Chris Smitherman (2 hours) 4/13/13 - Indy vs Cincy development 5/4/13 - Streetcar(2 hours) 6/22/13 - Chris Smitherman, Mark Miller (2 hours) 9/21/13 - Chris Finney Darryl Parks -sporadic podcasts 1/30/10 - 3c train stupid 5/22/10 - Streetcars 7/10/10 - Streetcar coming even though you don't want it 11/6/10 - Streetcar instead of cops 1/8/11 - Chris Finney - streetcar 6/4/11 - inclines 11/7/11 - ballot issues 10/31/11 - transit center 2/18/12 - 4/3/12 - Chris Smitherman 5/15/12 - PG Sittenfeld 12/1/12 12/8/12 - Dusty Rhodes 2/9/13 4/3/13 5/11/13 5/25/13 6/15/13 - Darryl Parks 7/20/13 LISA WELLS 2/23/13 - Amy Murray 4/27/13 - Chris Smitherman 5/11/13 - Chris Finney 5/25/13 - Amy Murray 6/9/13 - Chris Smitherman Chris Smitherman Guest Host 1/15/11 - 2 hour segment on streetcars DOC THOMPSON: -53 known podcasts on the streetcar starting on 11/22/10 and ending on 1/13/12. Ironically Chris Finney was his last guest on the subject. Here are the guests(The rest of the podcasts are solo) - 6 Chris Smitherman appearances(Starting in 7/27/11) - 4 Tom Luken appearances - 3 Leslie Ghiz - 2 each from Amy Murray and Jeff Berding - 1 each from Chris Finney, Laure Quinlivan, Dusty Rhodes, Barry Horstman(2 hour podcast), Chris Seelbach, Mary Kuhl, Chris Monzel SCOTT SLOAN -61 known podcasts since 1/31/12 on his morning show on the streetcar. Of those podcasts, here are the guests(The rest of the podcasts are solo) - 15 Chris Smitherman appearances - 9 PG Sittenfeld appearances - 5 Amy Murray appearances - 4 Roxanne Qualls appearances - 2 Leslie Ghiz, Kathy Harrell, Chris Finney, Kevin Osborne & Chris Monzel appearances - 1 appearance each from Ed Finke, Alex Triantiflou, Tim Burke, Chris Seelbach, Blair Shroeder from Duke, Greg Hartmann, Steve Chabot, John Cranley, Dusty Rhodes, Laure Quinlivan, John Schneider, Todd Portune BILL CUNNINGHAM -151 known podcasts since 6/7/10 on the streetcar. Of those podcasts, here are the guests(The rest of the podcasts are solo) -44 appearances from Christopher Smitherman(starting 2/24/11) & one podcast on 'Council doing things for political gain'(Oh the irony) -23 appearances from Leslie Ghiz - 9 from Laure Quinlivan - 7 From Chris Finney - 5 from PG Sittenfeld - 4 from Dusty Rhodes, Yvette Simpson, John Cranley - 3 from Charlie Winburn, Kathy Harrell. John Dietrich, Tom Luken - 2 each from Amy Murray, Chris Seelbach, Charlie Luken -1 appearance each from Chris Bortz, Wayne Lippert, State Rep Danny Bupt, Jeff Berding, Dan Monk, George Lang, Mark Mallory, nathan Bachrach, Mike Allen, Kevin Osborne, Alex Triantifilou, David Mann SLOAN/EDDIE & TRACY -28 known podcasts on the streetcar with a huge gap in podcasts from 1/3/10-1/19/11. Of those podcasts, here are the guests(the rest were them solo) - 8 appearances by Chris Smitherman(Starting in 2/18/13) - 4 Appearances by PG Sittenfeld - 3 appearances by Leslie Ghiz - 2 by Laure Quinlivan, Tom Luken - 1 each by Amy Murray, Kathy Harrell, Chris Seelbach, Dusty Rhodes, John Cranley, Kevin Flynn MARC AMAZON -63 podcasts on the streetcar. Here are the guests(the rest are him solo) - 21 by Chris Smitherman(Including 2 hour 'Smitherman on the Mic') starting in 3/22/11 - 11 by Amy Murray - 4 by Laure Quinlivan - 3 by Jeff Berding, leslie ghiz, PG Sittenfeld - 2 by Chris Finney - 1 by Wayne Lippert, Jason Gloyd of COAST, Dusty Rhodes, Steve Chabot, Mark Miller GARY JEFF WALKER -15 podcasts on the streetcar. Here are the guests(the rest are him solo) - 1 appearance by Chris Smitherman WEEKEND NUMBERS (Tough to accurately collect because they are sporadic and missing huge gaps so the accurate number is MUCH MUCH HIGHER) Numbers do not include Dan Carroll(who's podcasts aren't listed) OR Eric Deters(who seemingly bashed the project everyday). Here is what we know officially: DARRYL PARKS 20 known podcasts on the streetcar. here are the guests(the rest are him solo) - 2 Chris Smitherman - 1 appearance by PG Sittenfeld, Dusty Rhodes and Chris Finney. Mark Miller LISA WELLS 5 Known podcasts - 2 appearances by Amy Murray, Chris Smitherman - 1 appearance by Chris Finney ONE WEEKEND 2 HOUR SMITHERMAN ON THE MIC PODCAST --------------------------- Here are the final numbers(Remember, this is a low estimate. The number when combined with Darryl Parks missing podcasts + Eric Deters + Dan Carroll + missing weekend podcasts + Surprise guest call ins + casual talk about project + non updated podcast = MUCH MUCH MUCH HIGHER) 401 PODCAST SEGMENTS ON THE STREETCAR. Total Guest Count(The rest are solo shows): - 101 known podcast segments by Chris Smitherman - 36 known podcast segments by Leslie Ghiz - 22 Known Podcast segments by PG Sittenfeld, Amy Murray - 17 known podcast segments by Laure Quinlivan - 14 known podcast segments by Chris Finney - 9 Known podcast segments by Tom Luken - 8 known podcast segments by Dusty Rhodes - 7 Known podcast segments by John Cranley - 6 known podcast segments by Jeff Berding, Kathy Harrell - 4 Known podcast segments by Chris Seelbach, Chalie Winburn(Incl Smitherman on the Mic), Roxanne Qualls, Yvette Simpson - 3 Known podcast segements from Chris Monzel, John Dietrich - 2 known podcast segments by Barry Horstman, Steve Chabot, Mark Miller, Kevin Osborne, Charlie Luken, Alex Triantiflou - 1 Known podcast segment from Mary Kuhl, George Lang, Blair Shroeder, Greg Hartmann, Jason Gloyd of COAST, Ed Finke, Tim Burke, Mark Mallory, Wayne Lippert, Dan Monk, Danny Bupt, John Schneider, Nathan Bachrach, Todd Portune, Mike Allen, Kevin Flynn - Rest are individual show hosts Final Podcast tally of Guests + Individual show hosts: AGAINST THE STREETCAR: 367 Podcasts FOR THE STREETCAR: 34 Podcasts
November 11, 201311 yr and even if you include 30 years worth of operating costs for the streetcar at $3M annually ($90M total capitalized in today's dollars), its still cheaper to finish ($153M) than to cancel ($345M) by a factor of ~2.25. Thanks for that addition Rob. You're right that we can not ignore those operating costs, cause the opposition uses them to construct their arguments. Two questions (for you or anybody else): - Based on what I've read, the $3M annual figure is a "safe" conservative number, since it represents the subsidy required and not the actual costs. Any contrary opinions? - Does this all jive with the original economic study assumptions? I'm assuming that those operating costs were factored into the costs or benefits somehow. Just want to make sure there's no double counting going on.
November 11, 201311 yr ^ I forgot. The operating expenses, if included, should be discounted. Going with the 30 year life and 4% discount rate, the present worth of $3M annual operating costs is about $52M. Based on this I edited the above post that summarizes the costs to cancel versus complete. The costs to cancel the streetcar exceed the costs to complete by a 3:1 margin.
November 11, 201311 yr ^ I forgot. The operating expenses, if included, should be discounted. Going with the 30 year life and 4% discount rate, the present worth of $3M annual operating costs is about $52M. Based on this I edited the above post that summarizes the costs to cancel versus complete. The costs to cancel the streetcar exceed the costs to complete by a 3:1 margin. I hesitate to discount the operating costs because they don't represent a fixed asset, and can tend to actually increase a bit year over year since wages go up, among other things. Unless I'm confused (which very well could be the case)
November 11, 201311 yr I'd also keep in mind that the feasibility study projects billions (that's with a B) of dollars in new development and redevelopment due directly to the streetcar. That's entirely in line with what was already experienced (not just projected, but actually measured) in other cities that put in streetcar lines years ago. So even though the usually quoted 3:1 benefit:cost ratio doesn't sound all that impressive, that's only because it factors in all the costs and what is actually captured by the city in taxes to pay for and operate the line. It takes billions of dollars of increased property values, new job salaries, and sales to generate millions in new taxes because the taxes levied on those things are only single-digit percentages. Nevertheless, the fact that even the most conservative projections still show the project being at least a 3X win should be a red flag for anyone trying to cite fiscal reasons for canceling it. At the very least, everyone should ask Cranley why he wants to throw away billions of dollars of improved property value and new development potential.
November 11, 201311 yr Also, in 2008, I remember Cranley asking what are the costs "beyond the streetcar" in order to achieve its stated goals? That's actually a very fair question, because it's easy to hide expenses in another column. But the fact is I don't see what else we're really waiting on here. We already have an organization, 3CDC, doing the bridge loans that were unattainable for decades in OTR. That organization is also building public parking garages. So beyond the streetcar expenses, I see the future expenses for the city being ongoing streetscape improvements throughout OTR, including the Liberty St. road diet. Beyond that, I think with the streetcar, the city has pretty much done everything that it both can and needs to do to guide the area in a self-sustaining direction.
November 11, 201311 yr ^^ Rob, no your not confused. The operating costs are expected to rise over time by the rate of inflation. Briefly, the _interest rate_ is the sum of two things - the discount rate and the inflation rate. The _discount rate_ represents the inherent time value of money, is independent of inflation, and exists even if inflation is zero. Inflation is, well, we're all familiar with that. Economists ignore the inflation rate when analyzing project costs and benefits because, basically, it comes out in the wash. It's sort of like, if everything you buy costs 5% more, but you get 5% more in your paycheck, there's no difference to you. But Economists definitely do not ignore the discount rate, because that would imply a strange situation where the time value of money is zero. So operating expenses should properly be discounted (using the _discount rate_ -- not the interest rate). And, that doesn't imply anything about them staying constant over time, in the dollar of the day. Inflation is expected and not contradictory to the discounted cost analysis. I remember clearly the lecture where I learned that "inflation doesn't matter for comparing project costs/benefits" in graduate school, in a formal way, cause I found it so surprising. It's one of the many really important facts that economists use to properly analyze projects that most of us are unaware of.
November 11, 201311 yr Yeah - I'm still early on in my planning masters. So I've learned the discount rate, but really haven't looked at computing cost/benefit analyses in an in-depth way. So THANK YOU for the lesson. I stand corrected. So using your more accurate calculations, the point still stands that the city stands to benefit far more from finishing the project than from cancelling it. And that's in the cost calculations alone and doesn't even begin to attempt to monetize the value of reputation/standing/stature that either decision would create.
November 11, 201311 yr ... the city stands to benefit far more from finishing the project than from cancelling it. And that's in the cost calculations alone and doesn't even begin to attempt to monetize the value of reputation/standing/stature that either decision would create. Well put. I'd only add that, till someone on this board further clarifies assumptions, let's all keep in mind the "3X" figure, as in "it costs 3 times more to cancel the streetcar than to finish it." Numbers like that stick in peoples heads better.
November 11, 201311 yr ^And it's will also go beyond costs. The perception of the city from outsiders. And that perception will be negative.
November 11, 201311 yr if any of you guys can get letters published in the Fishwarp - do it. I'm blackballed.
November 11, 201311 yr Tomorrow, 10am, 15th and race. A pro streetcar press conference. Show up if you can please
November 11, 201311 yr Cranley is meeting with the editorial board thursday for a town hall. Encourage everyone to try to show up and email streetcar questions about his position with facts and figures Also, tracks will be laid from music hall to near Findlay Market by the time John Cranley is sworn in
November 11, 201311 yr Cranley is meeting with the editorial board thursday for a town hall. Encourage everyone to try to show up and email streetcar questions about his position with facts and figures Also, tracks will be laid from music hall to near Findlay Market by the time John Cranley is sworn in Here's a link with an email address to which to submit your questions: http://cincinnati.com/blogs/politics/2013/11/11/cranley-to-face-questions-thursday/ Although they're firmly in Cranley's pocket, the Enquirer does like to stir things up a bit, at least during their little online chats. Hopefully they let some tough questions through, although I'll expect Cranley's ego to be big enough to dismiss any facts that aren't in line with his opinion.
November 11, 201311 yr David mann just said he is not a swing vote. He says he will look at the cost to cancel vs keep it going but that an overwhelmingly majority of people are against it. The streetcar will be canceled barring a miracle (pressure from Burke, Enquirer, business community or someone else prominent ). We need to be prepared and organized for a swift response . Expect the worst, hope for the best
November 12, 201311 yr WXIX did an in depth investigation http://www.wxix.com/story/23900091/amy-wagner-talks-with-john-cranley-about-streetcar-funding Well, they talked to Cranley for maybe 5 minutes...
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