Full presentation materials:

 

http://www.cincinnati-oh.gov/streetcar/news/

“We have to scrutinize these numbers,” Flynn said. “There was a lot said – and a lot that wasn’t accurate.”

 

“Of course the people who have incompetently run this project would be incompetent at shutting it down,” he (Cranley) said. “That’s why we’re going to have new leadership.”

 

It's one thing to be skeptical, and it's another to be obtuse. Unfortunately, I don't think we're dealing with any skeptics amongst the newcomers.

The more I think about it, the more I think that the simplest way to talk about it is as follows: A conservative estimate puts the difference between cancellation and finishing the project at $8mm. Let's say Cranley is able to negotiate some lower costs to cancel, and changes the difference to something like $20mm. That is the ROI number now. Everything on top of that is spent, either way. Certainly a streetcar is worth spending $20mm.

 

This isn't like when council voted to spend the additional $17mm. The decision is: do we spend X to cancel or do we spend X+Y to finish?

 

At that point the devil would be in the operating cost. Which is probably why questions were asked today about how to cover it without affecting the budget - unspoken for casino dollars, special assessment district.

The choice for Cranley and the counsel is simple. 

 

Do you want to aggressively preside over years of lawsuits, in the attempt to make good on your assurance that the cancellation costs will be lower than the cost to complete?  Or do you want to just let the streetcar supporters have this one, and move on to the task of running this City?  The former administration can take all of the blame for the broken campaign promises to cancel the streetcar.  Cranley can simply say, "I would have liked to cancel it, but Mallory signed contracts, and the liability and legal fees were too great and exposed the City to too big of a risk."  Your supporters will not begrudge you that reasonable position. 

The choice for Cranley and the counsel is simple. 

 

Do you want to aggressively preside over years of lawsuits, in the attempt to make good on your assurance that the cancellation costs will be lower than the cost to complete?  Or do you want to just let the streetcar supporters have this one, and move on to the task of running this City?  The former administration can take all of the blame for the broken campaign promises to cancel the streetcar.  Cranley can simply say, "I would have liked to cancel it, but Mallory signed contracts, and the liability and legal fees were too great and exposed the City to too big of a risk."  Your supporters will not begrudge you that reasonable position. 

 

I am still hoping this is his end game, and it is all political posturing that streetcar supporters are playing in to.

If the devil is in the operating cost, today's Cincinnati.com article about Cranley favoring a trackless trolley makes the entire thing moot. There is no reason not to do this. Sigh.

Article in Streetsblog

If the new mayor and council are foolish enough to pause/cancel this project despite the mounting evidence that such a move would be a disaster, how quickly would federal funds be reallocated?  Could potential legal action tie them up in court for a while? 

Notice that they want the current council to pause?

That way any problems that would arise would be on the current council not on the incoming council.

yeesh...

The video is mind boggling...

 

Mayor-elect John Cranley responds:  ”It does not cost $40 million to say ‘stop’.”

 

Why was he not there to ask questions??? Why was most of the non-supporters not there to ask questions?

There were no public comments which is what Cranley would be currently but why Slitherman wasn't there to account for every dime is unknown.

well, to me.

Unfortunately, mayor-elect is not coming in with an open, objective view.  He has protested previously, but he does seem to be an ideolouge against the streetcar.  I think he is going to pull whatever numbers he wants to boost his argument.  The council vote might be the only chance, and I hope someone in the media calls out his comparisons, which I am sure will bury the fact that cancellation has an ROI of zero (not to mention negative intangibles) while completion has an ROI of 2.7 (as in 2.7 * 133 Million).

 

One way that the pro-streetcar side should be mobilizing is to identify a way to pay the operational costs.  If that could be done through a special tax district, sponsorships, fund-raising, or just asking people that would take a bullet out of the chamber.  I have no expertise in organizing or fund-raising so I know this is arm-chair quarterbacking, but I would be willing to contribute and probably a lot more than what I would give someone for a political campaign.

Wow Is he sure about this?

 

"He expressed confidence that contractors Messer Construction and Prus Construction – both local companies – would cooperate in ending the streetcar project: “I believe they will be great partners to unwind this mess.”

 

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/artikkel?NoCache=1&Dato=20131121&Kategori=NEWS010801&Lopenr=311210147&Ref=AR

Is there anyone who can engage Messer and Prus, etc., to draw them out on this?  After all, they need to make it known beforehand what the repercussions are going to be since they hold many of the cards.  To just sit by silently while Cranley is "believing" things about them and then rain down a shitstorm when he does pull the plug doesn't really do anybody any good.  Maybe they don't know for sure as they're having their attorneys, project managers, and accountants take a look at it, but they need to speak up. 

I found the cost too high for the ROI

 

I agree with much of what you said, but this point doesn't make sense to me. The ROI is still conservatively estimated at 2.7-to-1. The cost of this project has only went up by around 15%, mostly due to 2 years of delays caused by the opponents. If the cost were to skyrocket up to $200 million, I would not be in favor of it. I disagree with your assessment that streetcar supporters would support the project no matter the cost.

 

Real quick - 1) Right now, you need to build it because the money has been spent already.

2) at the 133 million for phase 1, I did not necessarily feel the cost was worth it, but again that was my opinion and the cost had reached my personal threshold.

3) While $200 million may have been your max, in all fairness there are a few people here that are build at any cost. Plus part of the point was to reduce both sides positions to the absurd.

 

 

This is why I got out of planning. What the f*ck is a "personal threshold?" You're not shopping for a new shirt.

 

Cranley campaigned on a promise to stop the streetcar. I'm not sure why the dollar figures even matter to him. The same goes for the council members.

 

I'm surprised that no one mentioned on this forum that city manager Milton Dohoney is resigning, under pressure from mayor-elect Cranley. There could be more changes coming.

 

I have to imagine that Messer, etc., saw this coming, and bid the job higher than normal to allow for the political uncertainty.

^ No they had the lowest bid.  No way would I let a city off the hook after that HUGE favor.

I'm going to be on the 10pm Channel 19 news tonight.  They interviewed me last week so I'm not sure how I'm going to be edited in or out of the story.

Cranley campaigned on a promise to stop the streetcar. I'm not sure why the dollar figures even matter to him. The same goes for the council members.

yup - it's not their money

Something incidental that I've been meaning to mention since the election:

 

I know of people who voted for Cranley because he's pro-life, not because they oppose the streetcar.  Don't forget that the Right to Life movement basically started in Cincinnati, founded by Dr. John Willke and his wife Barbara, and there are many voters in this town who consider abortion THE one and only issue.  African Americans as a group are anti-abortion.  So are Roman Catholics.  Both groups figure largely in Cincinnati's demographic makeup.  Cranley's victory is just as likely attributable to his stance on abortion as his stance on the streetcar. 

So on top of Cranley being basically a tea party guy, he is also pro life?  And he is a democrat? Unbelievable.

Something incidental that I've been meaning to mention since the election:

 

I know of people who voted for Cranley because he's pro-life, not because they oppose the streetcar.  Don't forget that the Right to Life movement basically started in Cincinnati, founded by Dr. John Willke and his wife Barbara, and there are many voters in this town who consider abortion THE one and only issue.  African Americans as a group are anti-abortion.  So are Roman Catholics.  Both groups figure largely in Cincinnati's demographic makeup.  Cranley's victory is just as likely attributable to his stance on abortion as his stance on the streetcar. 

This should be in the mayor thread but, yeah, Paul Booth and a bunch of male, black ministers endorsing Cranley really made me wonder if they were expecting some anti choice crap out of him.

I'm surprised that no one mentioned on this forum that city manager Milton Dohoney is resigning, under pressure from mayor-elect Cranley. There could be more changes coming.

 

It's in one of the other threads.

Wow Is he sure about this?

 

"He expressed confidence that contractors Messer Construction and Prus Construction – both local companies – would cooperate in ending the streetcar project: “I believe they will be great partners to unwind this mess.”

 

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/artikkel?NoCache=1&Dato=20131121&Kategori=NEWS010801&Lopenr=311210147&Ref=AR

 

Well, he was "sure" that the Feds would let him reassign $44M two weeks ago. "They said they'd be happy to work with me on that" was what I believe he said on WVXU's cincinnati edition. Two weeks later they put in writing that he cannot do this and suddenly he has a scheduling conflict that has caused him to cancel the meeting.  What a baffoon. 

Something incidental that I've been meaning to mention since the election:

 

I know of people who voted for Cranley because he's pro-life, not because they oppose the streetcar.  Don't forget that the Right to Life movement basically started in Cincinnati, founded by Dr. John Willke and his wife Barbara, and there are many voters in this town who consider abortion THE one and only issue.  African Americans as a group are anti-abortion.  So are Roman Catholics.  Both groups figure largely in Cincinnati's demographic makeup.  Cranley's victory is just as likely attributable to his stance on abortion as his stance on the streetcar. 

 

Yeah, because the Mayor of Cincinnati has a lot of sway in the national abortion debate.  :wtf:

OK...I really hope I'm wrong about this, but I'm starting to sense an evil plan (LOL). This project is probably dead precisely because of the huge costs of cancellation. That way the city can fall into fiscal chaos (ruined operating budget), bus service will be cut (feeding Smitherman-type "Bus Rider Union"-type arguments), police will be fired, and the "damn streetcar" becomes the excuse for all these problems. Cranley afterwards winds up the scapegoat, and the city is delivered to the hands of the GOP. Cue election of Mayor Smitherman in 2017.

 

I hope I'm wrong. I'm exaggerating, just a little bit.

 

EDIT: But by 2017 a bunch of law firms will be pretty darn happy!

^City council can't cut bus service.  Metro has a dedicated revenue source and is overseen by SORTA's board.

 

But what all the Republicans who voted for Cranley missed is that his "fiscal conservatism" will all be for show to eventually unseat Brad Wenstrup.  So Cincinnati will suffer from his chaos so that Cranley can show Ohio's second district that he's the "real conservative".  He'll get all the D votes, split the Republicans, and send Wenstrup back to his podiatry practice.   

That seems like a fairly concrete reason to not cancel the project, but I'm sure Cranley (he's probably not in attendance, right?) will find a way to make himself believe his opinion is more accurate than actual quotes from the people actually involved with the project.

 

Cranley's and Murray's dismissive remarks about the presentation, suggesting the numbers are unbelievable, unfairly impugn the integrity of John Deatrick, who's done so much more for our city than THEY ever have.  This is the man who got the reconstruction of FWW done with dispatch (and on or under budget), and of course finally made The Banks a reality.  He's even been lauded for the quality of his work, for crying out loud.  Shame on those 2 political grandstanders for insulting the kind of public servant everyone should be grateful for.

It's all about ego at this point and future political aspirations

Channel 19 did a great report last night comparing the streetcar to the subway.  I'm interviewed briefly in the second minute:

Channel 19 did a great report last night comparing the streetcar to the subway.  I'm interviewed briefly in the second minute:

 

Terrific. Let's make this viral.

That seems like a fairly concrete reason to not cancel the project, but I'm sure Cranley (he's probably not in attendance, right?) will find a way to make himself believe his opinion is more accurate than actual quotes from the people actually involved with the project.

 

Cranley's and Murray's dismissive remarks about the presentation, suggesting the numbers are unbelievable, unfairly impugn the integrity of John Deatrick, who's done so much more for our city than THEY ever have.  This is the man who got the reconstruction of FWW done with dispatch (and on or under budget), and of course finally made The Banks a reality.  He's even been lauded for the quality of his work, for crying out loud.  Shame on those 2 political grandstanders for insulting the kind of public servant everyone should be grateful for.

 

I must confess that a 1 year clock to wind down the project is rather unbelievable.  Make it 3 months and the numbers do go down, although not significantly.  I think the message would have been better served with a quicker timeline.

I anticipate if you look at the wind down numbers factoring in the money you can get for items such as selling the streetcars being built and things like that, the true winddown cost is probably about 25% less than stated yesterday. Still not enough to justify canceling the project, and that does not account for legal fees either which would probably eat up the difference.

 

It was interesting to hear Flynn and Mann speak because they did offer a little wiggle room. They went from being against it to looking at a short pause (hell even Murray wants that). Even if a short pause would add a few million more, a reasonable person would not pull the plug on it. It sounds like this will continue even after a short pause but they want to do their own due diligence first. All in all it could have been much worse.

Article in Streetsblog

 

Mallory v. Cranley would be the lamest fight ever.  We'd be waiting hours for each of them to throw the first punch.

 

Seriously though, if Mallory is so mad about this, how come he didn't try to get more support for this in the African-American community?  Why did he just sit back and give Chris Smitherman years to define it there, ever since Issue 48?  Pathetic.

Great job Jake.  And great job by Fox 19. 

 

Terrific. Let's make this viral.

 

Done. It's gone out on All Aboard Ohio's social networks.

Article in Streetsblog

 

Mallory v. Cranley would be the lamest fight ever.  We'd be waiting hours for each of them to throw the first punch.

 

Then Mallory would finally throw a punch, but it would miss Cranley's face by 5 feet.   

 

Great job Jake.  And great job by Fox 19. 

 

Yep.  Glad to see Jake on the report.

It's not just the subway and (hopefully not) the streetcar, but Cincinnati has plenty of other unfinished infrastructure projects, whether good or bad.  There's the Cincinnati & Dayton Short Line Railroad and their massive tunnel under Walnut Hills that was only partially completed.  There's also the abortive Cincinnati Western Railroad with yet another partially completed tunnel under Fay Apartments and random grading throughout Mt. Airy and Colerain Township.  Then of course there's the Colerain Expressway which despite being something of a zombie project seems to have finally died for good.  Thankfully the Taft and Queen City Expressways never got beyond the drawing stage.  There's also the never-used streetcar ramps into Union Terminal.

 

So much vision, so little follow-through.  Never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. 

I must confess that a 1 year clock to wind down the project is rather unbelievable.  Make it 3 months and the numbers do go down, although not significantly.  I think the message would have been better served with a quicker timeline.

I'm guessing a year is probably closer. They have to decide what they want & then plan it & then OK it, bid it & then do it. Bog forbid anybody files a lawsuit...

As far as deciding WHAT to do, all we have heard is what people don't want.

Then, of course, figuring out where to store stuff & then sell it.

We never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

 

Sometimes I think that's Ohio's motto, not just Cincinnati's.

Channel 19 did a great report last night comparing the streetcar to the subway.  I'm interviewed briefly in the second minute:

The economy, WWI, the local train systems really need to be brought up in relation to the subway but I know these guys have time restraints. WKRC, later, devoted equal time to the streetcar & a game arcade, tho.

Still, it's great to see someone like Jake getting out there. The media loves their "go to" guys & idiots like Smitherman, Finney & Luken have done a good job of establishing themselves. We need more articulate, non-knuckledraggers out there talking to the press.

It's unfortunate that they temporarily patched Elm Street with asphalt from 12th to 14th. I was hoping they would shift traffic over to the Washington Park side and immediately get to work on rebuilding the Music Hall side of the street. It would be nice to have a 2-block long completed section of track to show people what the end result will look like.

 

Also, I haven't been over there in the past few days. Did they end up putting down asphalt where the stop will eventually be located at Elm and 14th?

I liked the 19 report.  The anchor actually states it would be another "FAILURE".  Get this video out there folks, as I don't think many people realize how much track has been laid.  They need visuals visuals visuals.  Talked with a lady complaining about it in line at the grocery the other day.  She didn't know they already started to build it.  When I told her that, she said maybe they shouldn't stop it then, so we dont end up with another subway situation.

I liked the 19 report.  The anchor actually states it would be another "FAILURE".  Get this video out there folks, as I don't think many people realize how much track has been laid.  They need visuals visuals visuals.  Talked with a lady complaining about it in line at the grocery the other day.  She didn't know they already started to build it.  When I told her that, she said maybe they shouldn't stop it then, so we dont end up with another subway situation.

 

Several of us have been sharing photos and videos on YouTube, Flickr, Twitter, Facebook, UrbanCincy, etc. The challenge is getting people who don't pay attention to these outlets to know that it's under construction.

 

I have a request: Can someone with solid graphic design skills create a route map that shows which sections of the route are done? It would probably have different colors for: track work complete, rail in place, pavement removal (trench) complete, utility work underway, and not yet started. Any takers?

I liked the 19 report.  The anchor actually states it would be another "FAILURE".  Get this video out there folks, as I don't think many people realize how much track has been laid.

 

The way the reporter said "FAILURE" near the end was high impact for sure.

 

But what all the Republicans who voted for Cranley missed is that his "fiscal conservatism" will all be for show to eventually unseat Brad Wenstrup.  So Cincinnati will suffer from his chaos so that Cranley can show Ohio's second district that he's the "real conservative".  He'll get all the D votes, split the Republicans, and send Wenstrup back to his podiatry practice.   

 

I wish nothing but future failures for Cranley, and I would never, EVER vote for him for State office. He's ostracizing a lot of democrats with this foolishness...real democrats that he will need as his 'base' for any future run.  Cranley is a scum bag, and I would vote for Sarah Palin over his dumb ass.

.

Still, it's great to see someone like Jake getting out there. The media loves their "go to" guys & idiots like Smitherman, Finney & Luken have done a good job of establishing themselves. We need more articulate, non-knuckledraggers out there talking to the press.

 

Derek Bauman sounded good on Scott Sloan today. Yes, I have found a way to tune in WLW on my home stereo up here without having to assume the Fox Network Antenna Viewing Positions from Married With Children with foil surrounding the antenna and Kelly holding a cable from the top of the stairs

jmecklenborg: I know City Council does not control SORTA service at will. I mean that a consequence of canceling the streetcar project would be loss of federal funding for SORTA.