Appears the Hailie Foundation alone  has the resources to guarantee operations of the streetcar.....Will they?

 

http://www.faqs.org/tax-exempt/OH/Carol-Ralph-Haile-Jr-Foundation.html

^ Only way I could see that happening is if Cranley (or Flynn & Mann) allows for the streetcar's ROI to discount or reimburse what private money is needed. We've yet to hear anything about that.

 

It would be insane to expect Haile to just hand over $80m or whatever, and let the city just keep all the ROI.

Cincinnati isn't the only city wrestling with the streetcar issue; from the Atlantic This Place Matters column: http://m.theatlanticcities.com/commute/2013/12/san-antonio-cant-decide-if-its-building-streetcars-and-light-rail/7792/

At least in San Antonio (TX) there does not seem to be a strong effort to cancel the project entirely. Urban rail transportation appears to be a benchmark a city has to reach to be considered world-class and competitive in this post -millennium era.

no one is asking them to hand over money, simply to UNDERWRITE the operations. This means, should the returns in taxes not meet expectations, and there is a gap between new tax receipts, fares, ads, grants, etc, and the actual operating costs, whomever is the underwriter guarantees to fill that gap.

 

IF this were to happen, it would be significantly less than $3M. The $3M is worst case, when in fact, it is likely not to happen at all.

To get construction restarted all that Cranley has stated is he needs a guarantee of covering cost of operations...The Hailie Foundation is capable of doing that...Work out the detail later...Although I tend to think they are already being worked out...

 

http://www.wcpo.com/news/political/local-politics/fta-rejects-streetcar-project-funding-deadline-extension-mayors-office-says

 

"The nonprofit Haile Foundation and some individual benefactors are discreetly trying to raise pledges of money for the troubled project, multiple sources told WCPO."

 

“We've been talking with a number of people who are willing to solve that $3 million to $4 million gap every year. We know there's a way of doing that. There's 17 ways of doing that. There's some uniquely Cincinnati way of doing that,” Haile Foundation Vice President Eric Avner said.

I hope and would think anyone working with the mayor on funding is also working on guaranteeing a way to get a return themselves based on any investment they make.  He is not a finance major, but I would like him to outline exactly what is needed to consider operations funded so everyone understands.  Although the media keeps saying $80 million is needed I understand the requirement to be that somenone guarantee any operational costs not paid by fares/ads/sponsorships will be covered up to $80 million.  I think technically money is not needed right now but the contractual obligation to pay is.  Considering present value, future value, and that some costs will be covered I would argue the actual cost would be much less.  Flynn seemed to do a little better at explaining the requirement but some clarity from the mayor's office would be nice.

 

Admittedly I have not read the full Courier analysis so it might have been covered in the recent ariticle.

 

EDIT:  the two responses above explain the funding, but I still think many in the genral public do not get this - surprise.

Any word yet on when the petitions get turned in?

I agree with you Jos that Cranley is not to be trusted and he's trying to kill the project at all costs.  However he's on record of saying this publicly with every news media in town

 

John Cranley may have an enormous ego and is extremely stubborn.  However he's not dumb.  Ultimately if flynn and mann feel satisfied with the guarantee,  there's nothing he can do

no one is asking them to hand over money, simply to UNDERWRITE the operations. This means, should the returns in taxes not meet expectations, and there is a gap between new tax receipts, fares, ads, grants, etc, and the actual operating costs, whomever is the underwriter guarantees to fill that gap.

 

IF this were to happen, it would be significantly less than $3M. The $3M is worst case, when in fact, it is likely not to happen at all.

 

If we take Cranley's words at face value, from what I gather, using ROI gained thru taxes is off the table for streetcar operations.

That doesn't make any sense, natininja. From what I've read, the new administration wants the operating costs underwritten, not subsidized. That directly implies that the city will pay unless they get insufficient increase in tax return. Which means they aren't rejecting ROI, they just won't put their faith in it.

That doesn't make any sense, natininja. From what I've read, the new administration wants the operating costs underwritten, not subsidized. That directly implies that the city will pay unless they get insufficient increase in tax return. Which means they aren't rejecting ROI, they just won't put their faith in it.

 

I agree that it makes no sense. But when has Cranley made sense when talking about the streetcar. Maybe I haven't read enough, but when I read things like:

 

In a major shift in his position, Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley said Thursday that he would support completing the first phase of the streetcar if all of the annual operating costs for the next three decades are covered by fares, advertising and donations from the private sector.

(Source)

 

I take them in the least streetcar-friendly way possible. Which is to say ROI via tax revenue is off the table, according to Cranley.

 

"Flynn indicated he would support restarting the project if the operating costs can be taken off of the city’s books."

 

It makes no sense, unless you look at it as a non-compromise meant to appear as a willingness to compromise. Maybe I'm too pessimistic. Please prove to me that I am.

No I don't think you're being pessimistic. That source seems clear that they want no operating cost burden. I don't understand the contradiction with other media sources. Maybe nobody does right now?

natininja, I'm afraid there isn't much reason to feel optimistic about the current majority of those on council when it comes to reasoning with them about the streetcar.

 

However, we owe an enormous debt of gratitude to P.G. Sittenfeld for having shown the courage to change his mind on this matter, and stick by his decision to do so, gracefully.

 

He's been Council's Principal Voice of Reason and a gentleman and scholar to boot. He's given us streetcar supporters hope and encouragement. We'll remember him, if there should be a recall election down the road.

 

P.G.'s a natural successor to the mayor's seat. He'd make Cincinnati proud.

natininja, I'm afraid there isn't much reason to feel optimistic about the current majority of those on council when it comes to reasoning with them about the streetcar.

 

However, we owe an enormous debt of gratitude to P.G. Sittenfeld for having shown the courage to change his mind on this matter, and stick by his decision to do so, gracefully.

 

He's been Council's Principal Voice of Reason and a gentleman and scholar to boot. He's given us streetcar supporters hope and encouragement. We'll remember him, if there should be a recall election down the road.

 

P.G.'s a natural successor to the mayor's seat. He'd make Cincinnati proud.

 

I agree.  I would certainly vote for P.G. for mayor after seeing how he's handled the last 2 weeks.  Even though he may not share my views on everything, I feel like he can be trusted to make intelligent decisions.

No I don't think you're being pessimistic. That source seems clear that they want no operating cost burden. I don't understand the contradiction with other media sources. Maybe nobody does right now?

 

What you said before is correct - "the city will pay unless they get insufficient increase in tax return. Which means they aren't rejecting ROI, they just won't put their faith in it."

 

one can choose to be pessimistic or optimistic, but it has been made clear from the original press conference on, that Cranley isn't saying the city won't ever pay any operating costs. he's saying that he is unwilling to do it if it eats into the current level of other services. Meaning that operating costs need to be paid from increases in revenue from streetcar related development, or from other sources (i.e. what is specified by the underwriting). There's no doubt that's what's being discussed.

 

Anyway, let's get more petitions signed.

It should be merged with metro. They know transportation better than the city. It already has a dedicated income source and you can use regular metro drivers to run the streetcar instead of hiring new workers to operate it.

^ Got 96 sigs in five hours at Findlay today with a NY Times reporter following me around and interviewing people who signed or wouldn't sign. Great place to get sigs from all over town. Only five of the 96 were from 45202. And lots of non-Cincinnatians who couldn't sign were urging us on. Suggesting hitting Findlay tomorrow. Also, some bars and restaurants will happily let you walk around get sigs. I got 24 at Arnold's last night while mostly drinking beer at the bar.

 

 

No I don't think you're being pessimistic. That source seems clear that they want no operating cost burden. I don't understand the contradiction with other media sources. Maybe nobody does right now?

 

What you said before is correct - "the city will pay unless they get insufficient increase in tax return. Which means they aren't rejecting ROI, they just won't put their faith in it."

 

one can choose to be pessimistic or optimistic, but it has been made clear from the original press conference on, that Cranley isn't saying the city won't ever pay any operating costs. he's saying that he is unwilling to do it if it eats into the current level of other services. Meaning that operating costs need to be paid from increases in revenue from streetcar related development, or from other sources (i.e. what is specified by the underwriting). There's no doubt that's what's being discussed.

 

Anyway, let's get more petitions signed.

Can you supply quotes, please? Because I'm just not confident that you're correct. Though I agree it would make the most sense, I am too conditioned to expect nonsense that I need proof beyond an unreasonable doubt.

 

^ Got 96 sigs in five hours at Findlay today with a NY Times reporter following me around and interviewing people who signed or wouldn't sign. Great place to get sigs from all over town. Only five of the 96 were from 45202. And lots of non-Cincinnatians who couldn't sign were urging us on. Suggesting hitting Findlay tomorrow. Also, some bars and restaurants will happily let you walk around get sigs. I got 24 at Arnold's last night while mostly drinking beer at the bar.

 

Awesome!

 

I have been feeling like supporters could be picking up a lot more signatures if they weren't taking the tact you describe in your night at Arnold's. I think standing out on a street in NBDs would be more effective. However, I realize it's cold, and the signature goal is likely to be met, regardless. But if the 12000-by-tonight goal is not met, I think it would be advisable for people to spend a bit more time outside rather than sitting at a bar or a table in a coffee shop. Just my opinion, as someone who's following on social media but can't collect signatures where I am.

 

Findlay Market tomorrow sounds like an extremely good idea, BTW. There's room enough there for 3-5 people, probably.

^ Got 96 sigs in five hours at Findlay today with a NY Times reporter following me around and interviewing people who signed or wouldn't sign. Great place to get sigs from all over town. Only five of the 96 were from 45202. And lots of non-Cincinnatians who couldn't sign were urging us on. Suggesting hitting Findlay tomorrow. Also, some bars and restaurants will happily let you walk around get sigs. I got 24 at Arnold's last night while mostly drinking beer at the bar.

CO    has said they really like Findlay Market for collecting signatures.

^ Got 96 sigs in five hours at Findlay today with a NY Times reporter following me around and interviewing people who signed or wouldn't sign. Great place to get sigs from all over town. Only five of the 96 were from 45202. And lots of non-Cincinnatians who couldn't sign were urging us on. Suggesting hitting Findlay tomorrow. Also, some bars and restaurants will happily let you walk around get sigs. I got 24 at Arnold's last night while mostly drinking beer at the bar.

CO    has said they really like Findlay Market for collecting signatures.

 

CO also said they like hanging outside of bars and harassing drunk people for signatures

6000 already wow.

 

They just need to get them verified.

6000 already wow.

 

They just need to get them verified.

 

^ More than that now.

Latest I heard: 7000 signatures with 1/3 of petitions returned

I have been feeling like supporters could be picking up a lot more signatures if they weren't taking the tact you describe in your night at Arnold's. I think standing out on a street in NBDs would be more effective. However, I realize it's cold, and the signature goal is likely to be met, regardless. But if the 2000-by-tonight goal is not met, I think it would be advisable for people to spend a bit more time outside rather than sitting at a bar or a table in a coffee shop. Just my opinion, as someone who's following on social media but can't collect signatures where I am.

 

To the contrary, people walking in NBD's likely don't want to be stopped. It's cold and they have somewhere to be. At a bar being approached isn't quite the same as it is outside on the sidewalk. Though I think there are plenty of people who don't drink who you can catch out on the sidewalk with that approach. Both are very important IMO. I'll stick to the bar plan  :drunk:

r'm curious - is anyone here experienced enough with legal-signatures gathering for ballots, etc., to have a rough idea of what's the normal, expected ratio of "raw," (unverified signatures) collected versus those that survive verification and therefore legally count toward the signatures goal?  Is there anything like a "usual, to-be-expected ratio" of duds versus OK ones?

 

 

Follow-up question to the above: who gets assigned the privilege, if you will, of having to dig through thousands of signed sheets and do the verification? I'd think a team of lawyers certified to do these assays would have to be assembled - not an inexpensive proposition, unless they're willing to handle the task pro-bono.

 

One more KEY consideration - PLEASE, whoever's in charge of storing the collected Charter-Amendment Ballot signatures overnight, DON'T leave them in a known location where evil-minded forces could break in and/or steal/set them on fire.

 

The collected sheets should be deposited each night in a secure trusted bank vault accessible only to the inside-most of the insiders working on this.

Jos Callinet, you can edit your original posting with the "modify" button to add more comments to it.

Ran across this this evening. From Springfield, OH, 1932

I think the ratio is generally 50% of collected signatures are valid, but it depends on the training the signature gatherers have. For example, there was an effort to gather signatures to make Reds Opening Day an official city holiday (not time off work, but officially recognized by the city) and they got most of their signatures from people at games. They didn't seem to do a good vetting process and got a very large number of invalid signatures.

 

The training from Believe in Cincinnati seems to be pretty good from when I collected my petitions.

 

And Hamilton County Board of Elections is tasked with counting the signatures and validating them. Don't worry about the signatures being in a safe place. They know what they are doing and won't leave them anywhere dangerous. They are very well organized.

One more KEY consideration - PLEASE, whoever's in charge of storing the collected Charter-Amendment Ballot signatures overnight, DON'T leave them in a known location where evil-minded forces could break in and/or steal/set them on fire.

 

The collected sheets should be deposited each night in a secure trusted bank vault accessible only to the inside-most of the insiders working on this.

 

^ Turned-in petition forms are continuosly shipped offsite for signature verification.

Anyone have a final count from Saturday? The goal for yesterday was 12,000, but no one has confirmed that yet. Opponents are already saying 'see, they couldn't meet their 12k goal. The support isn't there.'

 

No number should have been reported anywhere until last night/this morning about how many were gathered.

Wcpo now rips into John Cranley

 

http://www.wcpo.com/news/opinion/op-ed/commentary-cranley-cincinnatis-new-mayor-needs-to-show-the-imagination-of-an-artist

 

NY times,  business week,  business courier,  Enquirer,  national blogs all think John Cranley's position is insane. 

 

His only friends left in the media are 700wlw and 55krc

When I turned in a completed petition Friday and picked up another one, I was told by HQ the deadline was Tuesday.  So I plan to turn in the one I have by then.  The Saturday deadline was to get a sense of interim progress.

Wcpo's article on Cranley is right to the point.

 

HOWEVER, they're addressing Mayor Cranley.  Wcpo stands a better chance of engaging in a meaningful dialogue with - and getting their point across to - a cinder block .....................

 

Does anyone in their right mind think for a split second that a single word in this article will penetrate Cranley's monumentally thick skull? Get him to rethink his all-or-nothing stance?

 

You're dealing with an anti-artist.

 

SIGH !!

 

Thank you, anyway, Wcpo, for publishing your article.

When I turned in a completed petition Friday and picked up another one, I was told by HQ the deadline was Tuesday.  So I plan to turn in the one I have by then.  The Saturday deadline was to get a sense of interim progress.

 

According to every press release, FB post, tweet, and news article, the Believe in Cincinnati team set a goal of 12,000 by yesterday. The number that's out there today is 6-7,000. And now opponents are saying 'see, they couldn't do it.'

I might be wrong, but I think the problem is a combination of cold weather and people limiting their collection pool to whoever steps inside whatever business they're posting out in. Also, it seems most people didn't turn their petitions in yesterday, but I have to think the people who weren't motivated enough to do that probably weren't motivated enough to collect a ton of signatures, either.

 

It's a shame the weather has sucked, but everyone needs to step up their game.

 

I know, it's easy for me to criticize from afar. Just trying to be helpful, though. Good luck!!! I still have faith 12k is doable by Tuesday.

 

Edit: If anyone lives in, or has friends living in, a big apartment building, that would be a good opportunity to go door-to-door, cover a lot of people in a short time, and stay warm while doing so. Many more people are in apartment buildings over the course of an hour than a coffee shop.

Edit: If anyone lives in, or has friends living in, a big apartment building, that would be a good opportunity to go door-to-door, cover a lot of people in a short time, and stay warm while doing so.

Folks were doing this in Tom Luken's place. Apparently Luken lobbied against the project at the condo members meeting of course.

I do have a point to make. The Cincinnati streetcar website, which I have a link to, apparently does not have anyone with the guts to report to the public what is going on. Their last posted update is 11/22/13, a good 3 weeks ago. Why don't they at least acknowledge the streetcar construction has been halted? They don't have to embellish on it, but at least square up with the people.

I do have a point to make. The Cincinnati streetcar website, which I have a link to, apparently does not have anyone with the guts to report to the public what is going on. Their last posted update is 11/22/13, a good 3 weeks ago. Why don't they at least acknowledge the streetcar construction has been halted? They don't have to embellish on it, but at least square up with the people.

 

Maybe the update and care of that website is funded by the same money? Maybe with a new administration they haven't made that a priority?

 

How does that mean they don't have the "guts" or why do you feel the need to imply some sort of cowardice?

From PG's Facebook page:

 

Streetcar Update (mostly to keep folks posted on this week's timetable)...

 

1) KPMG intends to conclude their cost-benefit analysis/audit by tomorrow (Tuesday) night

 

2) Council and the Mayor will have the audit in our hands to review by late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning

 

3) All Public Comment will be held at Wednesday's Council meeting (starting at 1:30PM in Council Chambers)

 

4) At 9AM on Thursday, the Streetcar Committee will have a working session to go over any questions relating to the results of the audit, and to discuss various scenarios for the impact of cancellation versus going forward

 

5) Then at 2PM on Thursday there will be a Special Session of Council - which will last somewhere between 1 and 10 hours - where the determining votes will be cast

 

I don't have a crystal ball, but I hope and feel that a sentiment is emerging that it is better to avoid the huge waste and damage that would come with cancellation. Stay tuned.

Are they going to release the audit to the public or will public comment be limited to guessing?

^I'm sure it will be released to the public. It is going to be subject to Sunshine Laws and if every councilmember gets the audit first, I'm sure some of them will release it as soon as they get it too. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning is a pretty tight deadline considering they will be voting on Wednesday.

Definitely cutting it close.  Since the federal funds deadline is midnight on Thursday the 19th, they have to get everything figured out by Wednesday night.

MLK Interchange funding was just approved by council today.  The biggest reason?  ROI.  And who conducted the study?  UC

 

Yes...The same UC that conducted the streetcar's ROI...The same UC whose results helped make  the Cincinnati Streetcar the #1 rated transportation project in the state. Which they promptly pushed aside as being erroneous

 

 

 

This is what we are dealing with here

This is crazy. If Cincinnati doesn't get this streetcar that is a major blow that Im not sure the city will ever be able to overcome. This would be a huge benefit to OTR. Without it I personally believe the neighborhood will progress slower and the neighborhood also losses several possible residents.

The biggest impacts of canceling would not be in OTR, but in Walnut Hills, Mount Auburn, Corryville, West End, Fairmount, Price Hill, Camp Washington, and other neighborhoods that would eventually capture urban revitalization momentum. Slow down the momentum, and it will take decades for these neighborhoods to have a chance at the pie. OTR will be fully revitalized within ten years, regardless.

 

The other big impact will be Downtown, where land values will continue to be so pathetically low that property owners see value in surface parking lots. What a drain on the local economy.

^ It's not so much that land value is low, but that most property value as far as taxes are concerned comes from improvements, like buildings.  So vacant or nearly vacant (i.e. parking) land, valuable as it may be, has a very low carrying cost due to low taxes.  Increasing land values does have some impact on property taxes, but not a whole lot.  It's a very perverse system that discourages building and improvement, while encouraging depreciation and speculation.  http://www.earthrights.net/docs/kunstler.html

Why would the feds approve funds for the MLK interchange if this project is cancelled? The region has bad air quality.  You would go from canceling a project that would reduce air quality to one that induces it.

Why would the feds approve funds for the MLK interchange if this project is cancelled? The region has bad air quality.  You would go from canceling a project that would reduce air quality to one that induces it.

 

Nice double standard.

Tuesday night/Wednesday morning is a pretty tight deadline considering they will be voting on Wednesday.

 

My understanding is the vote will come on Thursday, December 19th. When the FTA said the deadline was midnight on the 19th, they actually meant 11:59:59 PM, or midnight of December 20th if you prefer.

Posted by: BuckeyeB « on: Today at 12:32:21 PM »

Nice double standard.

 

We'll pay, do, anything to maintain our car culture, just as we're equally unwilling to pay for transit improvements.

 

The public still doesn't care how much pollution, traffic congestion, sprawl and obesity their devotion to autos and road-building costs them.

 

In today's Enquirer is an editorial suggesting it's do or die time for the Cincinnati Union Terminal, which needs very extensive repairs if it's to be prevented from falling down from neglect. This

council and mayor will almost certainly opt to have it torn down rather than ask the citizens to OK a tax increase to pay for its repairs.

 

It seems Cincinnati is on course to lose more than its streetcar.  A lot more.

 

It's going to take the same kind of determined citizen action to save Cincinnati Union Terminal as it is, now, the streetcar.