No surprises around here. Nation's worst area for jobs = one of the nation's worst areas for population loss. Expect 2009 to be much worse.

 

Article published July 01, 2009

Toledo loses 2,413 residents or 0.8% of population in year

By TOM HENRY

BLADE STAFF WRITER

 

For Toledo to race back to prosperity, it'll have to do so as a tortoise and not a hare.

 

New U.S. Census Bureau estimates being released today show Toledo was America's 268th slowest-growing city of 100,000 or more residents between July 1, 2007 and July 1, 2008.

 

To see more, click link

 

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090701/NEWS16/907010341

 

Regional Winners and Losers

 

Columbus: 1.1%

Grand Rapids: 0.1%

Cincinnati: 0.0%

Sterling Heights: -0.1%

Ann Arbor: -0.2%

Akron: -0.4%

Detroit: -0.5%

Dayton: -0.7%

Toledo: -0.8%

Cleveland: -1.0%

Flint: -1.4%

I wonder if the population loss goes beyond job losses; perhaps towns like BG, Perrysburg have a younger demographic (ie, more children) and fewer industrial jobs to lose? I'm surprised too at Findlay, but I wonder if people are moving out into the county? How much 'suburban' area does Findlay have within its city limits to catch new growth?

These numbers are heavily based on death/birth numbers and new home construction, which is why they are so easily challenged and so useless this far from an actual count.

Yeah, that's it.  It's all the Census Bureau.  These places aren't really declining. Ohio cities are really booming like the Sun Belt. 

 

Whatever the figures, it is very clear this is a demographically and economically sick region.  Why not invest the energy in dealing with that instead of railing against the Census Bureau or NAFTA or whatever.  Externalizing the problem doesn't fix anything.

 

Let's see where we really land in 2010.  Even if better than the estimates, it's still not going to be a pretty picture.

 

I'm not saying that they don't mean something but the method poorly tracks actual movement of people - particularly in stable to declining metros because of extrapolation method used concerning birth rates, death rates and the like. It is a sick region and it may well end up with even lower numbers than these estimates show, though Toledo has continually surprised at the slowness of its decline compared to the decline in its economy. It was supposed to crash below 300k in the last census and didn't.