The Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analyses measures the Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) of metro areas (MSAs).  This is the volume of goods and services produced, including the public sector.  They have been measuring this since 2001, so a nice little time series to do some comparisons.

 

Heres’s the source web site

 

The BEA website has various ways to measure GMP.  I will look at what they call “chained values” for the GMP and the per capita GMP.  These apparently adjust for inflation so the dollars are consistent from year to year, measuring true growth in a metropolitan economy instead of inflation.

 

I look at the major Ohio cities; Cleveland (including Loraine and Elyria), Cincinnati (including NKY, Hamilton & Middletown),  and Columbus.  I add Indianapolis and Pittsburgh as neighboring cities with roughly the same sized economies as the 3-Cs.

 

The following shows the trends since 2001 (through 2008).

 

 

What’s interesting is the relatively good performance of both Pittsburgh and the stagnation and decline of Cleveland starting in 2004 . It seems this happened to Cincinnati, too, and Columbus, after 2005.  The mid decade seemed to be a time when things bumped down to a lower growth rate for Indianapolis, which was tracking with Columbus at the start of the decade.

 

The 2001 to 2008 rankings in terms of growth and percentage growth are a bit misleading as they are measuring fairly good growth across the board in the first few years, but not the slacking and stagnation after mid decade.  Yet the good performance of Pittsburgh and Indianapolis and Columbus in growing their metropolitan economies are pretty apparent here.  Notably both Cols and Indy are state capitals and both have a strength in the FIRE sector.  So the real story is Pittsburgh as an old industrial center that has bucked the stagnation trend in Cleveland and Cincinnati.

 

 

 

Per Capita Gross Metropolitan Product

 

Another way to measure this.  This, I think, divides the GMP by metro population (using Census midyear estimates).  I guess this could measure how productive an economy is.  If population is declining or nearly stagnant and the GMP increases that means a higher GMP product;  the metro economy is producing more, or higher valued stuff, with fewer people.  Or its producing at the same rate but population drops mean an increasing per capita number.

 

Or something like that.  I’ll let the economists here explain this.

 

As with the previous series these are in “chained dollars”, adjusted back to 2001 to measure real growth, not inflation.

 

 

What’s interesting here is the stagnant performance across the board during the decade for Columbus, and the stagnation and even declines after 2004 for the other places (like Indy, which grew its GMP, but still saw a decline in the per capita number over most of the decade).

 

The big story is Pittsburgh.  This metro economy had a continual increase in per capita GDP, surpassing Cincinnati by the end of the decade.  As we saw in the previous graphs Pbgh actually did a good job of growing its metro economy, and also saw growth in the per capita number.  Perhaps due to outmigration and declining population.

 

Next, comparing net growth and % growth in the per capita GMP.

 

 

 

Interestingly enough Cleveland shows up a healthy second on these graphs, due to the substantial growth in per capita GMP earlier in the decade (yet followed by stagnation).  Columbus didn’t do so well here, and Indianapolis actually saw a dropping number.

 

I think the interesting story or puzzle is that something happened to these various metro economies in mid-decade, before the recession, causing them to either stagnate, decline, or shift to lower growth rates.  Except for Pittsburgh.

 

Very interesting stuff! Thanks for compiling all of this.

"Any" Cleveland metro area comparisons that do not include Akron as part of the MSA are pointless.  Downtown to downtown is 30 miles, and some of the "Akron suburbs" are 22-25 miles to downtown Cleveland, and border "Cleveland suburbs".  I understand not using Canton or Youngstown, but not Akron.

^

I guess I can expect the Cincinnati people to start bitching that Im not including Dayton in their numbers.  Oh well.

 

 

I am going to use Akron to compare with Dayton, Toledo, and Grand Rapids since it is its own MSA (according to the census).  I will also be linking to a Brookings study on the Akron economy as part of that post (which addresses the Cleveland connection).

 

 

Younstown will be dealt with in a later post.

 

I am going to use Akron to compare with Dayton, Toledo, and Grand Rapids since it is its own MSA (according to the census). I will also be linking to a Brookings study on the Akron economy as part of that post (which addresses the Cleveland connection).

 

Would you mind adding in a couple of other Midwest metros, like say, Ft. Wayne and Ann Arbor?

"Any" Cleveland metro area comparisons that do not include Akron as part of the MSA are pointless.  Downtown to downtown is 30 miles, and some of the "Akron suburbs" are 22-25 miles to downtown Cleveland, and border "Cleveland suburbs".  I understand not using Canton or Youngstown, but not Akron.

 

Good point. Akron needs to be included. Other metro areas are looked at like that...this one should be. This is a region of cities all stitched together forming one giant quiltwork of economic interdependence. Greater Cleveland needs to include Akron too...

As much as I would have liked to see Cle do better with these statistics, I don't know if adding Akron would be of much help.  We can't forget that the metro area lost over 80,000 jobs during the 2001 recession, mostly in manufacturing, while in the 90s we gained 100,000 jobs.  I would have to say that Cleveland would have taken a hit either way, if Akron was included or not. 

 

I believe that this region has turned a corner since the 2001 recession, and that future statistics will show this.  It would seem that Pittsburgh is doing rather well- without another mid-sized metro to lean on statistically, no less.

Akron is in many ways separate from Cleveland, but the way that MSA's are split up means that some of Cleveland's fast growing suburbs are in Akron's MSA.

Would you mind adding in a couple of other Midwest metros, like say, Ft. Wayne and Ann Arbor?

 

I am going to be using Fort Wayne as part of the Youngstown thread since they have comparable GMPs.

 

But not till next week as I will be in dear old Louisville for a few days for New Years.

 

 

 

GMP can be confusing. How can 2 identical metro's Portland Cincinnati have such different numbers? One has one F500 company the other has 11. Guess which has the higher GMP?

"Any" Cleveland metro area comparisons that do not include Akron as part of the MSA are pointless. Downtown to downtown is 30 miles, and some of the "Akron suburbs" are 22-25 miles to downtown Cleveland, and border "Cleveland suburbs". I understand not using Canton or Youngstown, but not Akron.

 

Good point. Akron needs to be included. Other metro areas are looked at like that...this one should be. This is a region of cities all stitched together forming one giant quiltwork of economic interdependence. Greater Cleveland needs to include Akron too...

 

Exactly. Places like Twinsburg, Macedonia, and Richfield are much more Cleveland suburbs than Akron suburbs, but since they're in Summit County, they are not a part of Cleveland's MSA. This is ridiculous. Cities like Atlanta have far off farm-towns 3 counties away included. The Census Bureau needs to recognize (1) that county lines aren't the only or most accurate way to draw these boundaries and (2) that some cities can function as suburbs of two core cities at once.

Yes.. Norcross Georgia is pretty far out of Atlanta, yet it is considered part of Greater Atlanta, is that correct?

As much as I would have liked to see Cle do better with these statistics, I don't know if adding Akron would be of much help. We can't forget that the metro area lost over 80,000 jobs during the 2001 recession, mostly in manufacturing, while in the 90s we gained 100,000 jobs. I would have to say that Cleveland would have taken a hit either way, if Akron was included or not.

 

I believe that this region has turned a corner since the 2001 recession, and that future statistics will show this. It would seem that Pittsburgh is doing rather well- without another mid-sized metro to lean on statistically, no less.

 

I wonder if any of this has anything to do with NAFTA?

Norcross is close and definitely a suburb of Atlanta.  Atlanta is sprawling and should inlucde much more land in its MSA than Cleveland.  But I am referring more to places like Jasper, Georgia in Pickens County.  65 miles away and not suburban in nature at all.  The fact that that is included in the Atlanta MSA while Twinsburg is not included in the Cleveland MSA is an absolute joke.

Norcross is close and definitely a suburb of Atlanta.  Atlanta is sprawling and should inlucde much more land in its MSA than Cleveland.  But I am referring more to places like Jasper, Georgia in Pickens County.  65 miles away and not suburban in nature at all.  The fact that that is included in the Atlanta MSA while Twinsburg is not included in the Cleveland MSA is an absolute joke.

 

I see what you mean. Perhaps that because these were rural farming areas not far from Atlanta----and meanwhile in the Cleveland area we already had solidly established suburbs at equal distances from the core---made it easier to get those sort of places included in their SMA? Thoughts on that? Remember... Cleveland, etc. was already very 'mature' when those surrounding areas in those cities contained only Uncle Jesse and Daisy.

 

I just wonder if such a scenario makes it easier for such a place like Atlanta to gobble those areas up into their SMA since there was really little to anything there (in the surrounding areas) until the last 35 years. And this area of Ohio had many more 'metro areas' than did Atlanta. (Yo. Akron, Canton--well established by themselves) I remember years and years ago...there was just Atlanta, the city..and once outside the proper...it was flat out more rural.

 

Only until recently have many in N.E. Ohio taken a more regional perspective at how they view what can be considered "the Cleveland area" --or the SMA--or what the visitors bureau now calls "Cleveland-Plus" There was always "Greater Cleveland" But that historically mostly included the inner ring burbs..and not so much the extra counties outside Cuyahoga. Just wonder if all this has anything to do with why they get to include those extended areas?

Jeff, great thread. And yes, a Grand Rapids, Toledo, Akron, Dayton thread would be perfect.

Maybe Dayton/Cincinnati should be merged post-2010?

 

  According to the source web site, there are 11 states with declining economies in 2008. Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, and Indiana showed declines. Pennsylvania showed an increase.

Cleveland revised to include the Akron MSA (Summit and Portage counties)

 

Total GMP is quite high compared to the others, but the same trend of stagnation and slight decline still shows up here.

 

 

Comparing performance, GMP growth over the decade...

 

 

And as a percentage.  Adding Akron MSA improves the Cleveland regional performance by between 1 and 2 percentage points. Yay. 

 

 

 

Thanks for the information, Jeffrey.  The information is interesting, and I think you've gone into some depth that the media has not.  I wonder what the relation between overall GMP stagnation, job loss, and per capita GMP growth in Cleveland means on the ground?  I believe wages have been fairly stagnant, so I guess that it means that there are few jobs, paying the same or less, that are more productive for corporate shareholders.  Not exactly encouraging, but also not the typical media storyline.

Thanks for the update Jeffery.  Though the numbers are higher, we have stagnate growth.  Again, I believe that future statistics will show growth in the region- however the reality is that right now the region must do more to foster growth in the tertiary economy.

 

Thanks again

^

Your welcome.  Another way to look at the numbers is a steady state economy. What seems to be happening with Cleveland, as with the other cities, after coming out of the 2001 recession there was expansion in GMPs and then a leveling off.  A question is if the expansion was the anomaly and the leveling off was the more "natural" trend in these economies...or if the leveling off was a harbringer of the recession we are in, but well in advance of the official recession.

 

 

"Any" Cleveland metro area comparisons that do not include Akron as part of the MSA are pointless.  Downtown to downtown is 30 miles, and some of the "Akron suburbs" are 22-25 miles to downtown Cleveland, and border "Cleveland suburbs".  I understand not using Canton or Youngstown, but not Akron.

 

Good point. Akron needs to be included. Other metro areas are looked at like that...this one should be. This is a region of cities all stitched together forming one giant quiltwork of economic interdependence. Greater Cleveland needs to include Akron too...

 

Exactly.  Places like Twinsburg, Macedonia, and Richfield are much more Cleveland suburbs than Akron suburbs, but since they're in Summit County, they are not a part of Cleveland's MSA.  This is ridiculous.  Cities like Atlanta have far off farm-towns 3 counties away included.  The Census Bureau needs to recognize (1) that county lines aren't the only or most accurate way to draw these boundaries and (2) that some cities can function as suburbs of two core cities at once.

 

Dayton really gets royally screwed by this, too.

 

Virtually no one would consider Springboro, Franklin, Waynesville, Middletown, etc. to be part of Cincy's metro, but the Census Bureau puts all of Butler/Warren into Cincy's pot. About 1/3 of each county's population is in Dayton territory.

Thank you so much for this, Jeffery. Love your graphs!

 

Pittsburgh is becoming a really fascinating story. I feel like it has quietly catapulted Minneapolis from "Savior of the Midwest" status over the past couple years, and numbers like this (as well as a shift-share analysis I saw a while back) showcase that it's not just posturing. I would love to see similar trendlines for Philly, Scranton, Reading, etc. Don't want to make any gross oversimplifications of the data, but I wonder the degree to which urban-oriented policy decisions in the 90s and 00s (or a more favorable environment, whatever the cause) would show consistent growth statewide in PA opposite relatively consistent stagnation in OH. Hmm.

I think the biggest difference is that Ohio is still a lot more reliant on manufacturing than Pennsylvania. Ohio is the second largest car producer behind Michigan. Southeastern PA (Philly) is home to numerous pharmaceutical companies and multinational corporations. Southwestern PA (Pittsburgh) bottomed in terms of manufacturing twenty five years ago. So, Pittsburgh has had over two decades to recover. On the other hand, NEO's manufacturing base didn't hit bottom until probably sometime in the early 2000's. Therefore, Pittsburgh has about a 20 year head start on NEO.  I also think PA benefits from having Philly, a huge East Coast city with a diversified economy.

Pittsburgh is becoming a really fascinating story. I feel like it has quietly catapulted Minneapolis from "Savior of the Midwest" status over the past couple years,

 

No, actually the Twin Cities are still doing a better job of growing their GMP.  Stay tune to a post doing a combined Dayton/Cincy number and then taking that and "Cleveland Plus" and doing a comparison with a few well-known twin cities metros.

Here’s a quick look at a combined Cincinnati/Dayton metro GMP and how it compares to Cleveland Akron.  Call it Cin-Day and Cleveland +. 

 

 

Though there is a lot of fluctuation the trend lines are nearly indentical.  Both urban regions have similar trends in GMP.

 

Next, lets see how this compares to other twin cities.  The Metroplex (Dallas/Fort Worth), Sea-Tac (Seattle/Tacoma and vicinity) and Twin Cities (Minneapolis-St Paul

 

 

Well, everything is big in Texas.  Including the Metroplex in both GMP and upward trajectory.

 

So lets take out the Metroplex

 

 

 

Both Sea-Tac and Twin Cities have upward trends compared to the fairly flat rates of Cin-Day and Cleveland +.  Both economie are pretty big, too.  I was surprised to see the GMP of the Twin Cities as high as it is.

 

Finally, comparing % growth in GMP over the decade, and adding a smaller regional economy, the Lehigh Valley (Allentown & Bethlehem).  What’s interesting is how well the Lehigh Valley performs as it used to be a quintessential rust belt economy, dependent on heavy industry.

 

 

 

..interestingly enough, the Lehigh Valley even surpassed Columbus in growth.  One has to guess this has something to do with proximity to Philadelphia and NYC...the Northeast Corridor.

 

 

The irony of these Ohio corner conglomerations is that Akron brings up the Cleveland numbers, while Dayton acts as a drag on the Cincinnati number. The question the NEOers might be able to answer is: Has the differential growth between Cleveland and Akron created a more cohesive region or pulled it apart? In SWOhio it is pretty clear that result of Dayton's decline with Cincinnati's relative growth has been the growing together of the two regions.

 

It would be interesting to trace the growth of the Cincinnati hinterland as it developed to the south - especially with the growth Georgetown (Toyota-world).

Georgetown is included in the Lexington metro area, not part of the Cincy MSA, though Cincy is including more counties down into KY now.  I did run numbers for Lexington and Louisville but didn't want to cloud this GMP stuff by dipping down into another region. 

 

Lexingtons' GMP had a 16.7% growth in 2001-2008, putting it in the Sea-Tac/ DFW Metroplex range.  Pretty impressive. 

The question the NEOers might be able to answer is: Has the differential growth between Cleveland and Akron created a more cohesive region or pulled it apart?

 

There is still a net amount of commuters from Akron to Cleveland, but the rate in the opposite direction has increased considerably between 1970 and 2000.

 

The Akron issue really is interesting.