Please note that I said "sections" of highways. And I didn't even have to edit my original post to clarify my position! Does "sections" mean to you that our entire highway system will be abanonded? If so, doesn't that suggest that, between the two of us, the person who needs to chill is you? Perhaps if you slowed down and read what I write more carefully, you might realize we're not too far apart in our predictions -- perhaps only the date of the outcome is what differs. We both agree that the rising cost of driving and taxes will only exacerbate the situation. The only difference being that I am increasingly skeptical that our elected officials have the balls to raise road user taxes or other fees. Either way, the outcome is the same.

 

Furthermore, the photos I posted show it is not a stretch to say that we can't afford to keep some sections in operable condition. We already aren't able to do so. My contention is that some of these roads may never reopen because we still won't be able afford it. I suppose it's a radical statement to some, but no more crazy than saying in the 1960s that sections of major mainline railroads would be abandoned in the coming decade. Anyone who was paying attention to available data, trendlines and the inevitable outcomes that would result would come to the same conclusions.

The important part of the equation is how many of those road "sections" are or aren't critical to keeping the rest of the road open?  Bridges are the most expensive maintenance item on the roads, but they're also some of the most critical too, since the loss of one bridge can make miles and miles of road completely useless.  Overpasses could probably be condemned or demolished and simply bypassed by a surface connector, or even a circuitous routing around existing ramps, but bridges over rivers are much harder to do without. 

Where are the top and bottom photos from, KJP?

The first photo is of a 10-mile section of the 1940-built Pennsylvania Turnpike east of Breezewood that was abandoned when the road was realigned. The picture was posted at: http://m.jalopnik.com/5341888/bonneville+it+yourself-ten-high-speed-venues-for-the-frugal-and-stupid/gallery/

 

Not sure where the third picture was taken, but it was posted (along with other cool pics) at:

http://www.flickriver.com/photos/tags/tresspassing/interesting/

 

I found these and other amazing pictures of abandoned highways by searching Google Images using the terms "abandoned highway closed."

 

 

I thought the first one was the PA Turnpike; I just wasn't positive.

9 percent drop in 16- and 17-year-old licensed drivers from 2006 to 2010

18-year-olds with licenses fell 4.7 percent.

 

 

http://www.wcpo.com/dpp/news/state/bwv-records-show-ohio-has-fewer-teenage-drivers

As a high school student, I remember everyone racing to get their license. Our biggest fear was being a senior and having to take the bus or be dropped off by our parents. I wonder if that still holds true. It's definitely a social convention of sprawling cities and states more-so than anywhere else. I couldn't believe it when I met this girl from New York City (Queens) who was 19 and didn't have a driver's license. She actually just got hers lol. She lived in South Queens and traveled all the way to Bronx School of Science via subway/train all throughout high school. I think she said it took a couple hours each way. No one 'from' NYC would think that's weird at all.

As a high school student, I remember everyone racing to get their license. Our biggest fear was being a senior and having to take the bus or be dropped off by our parents. I wonder if that still holds true. It's definitely a social convention of sprawling cities and states more-so than anywhere else. I couldn't believe it when I met this girl from New York City (Queens) who was 19 and didn't have a driver's license. She actually just got hers lol. She lived in South Queens and traveled all the way to Bronx School of Science via subway/train all throughout high school. No one 'from' NYC would think that's weird at all.

 

Nope they dont.  Thing 1 didn't get his license until he was 30.  Thing 2, at 28.  I had to convince both of them to get a license.  New Thing 1, got his license at 21 while at collage.

 

The number of teenagers in Ohio has stayed almost constant, with only a slight rise:

 

Ohio population 15 to 19, 2000 Census: 816,868

Ohio population 15 to 19, 2010 Census: 823,682

 

So, a drop in the number of teenage drivers must really mean that fewer teenagers are driving.

 

While I'd like to think that they are taking transit, bicycling, or walking instead of driving, probably what's happening is that they just aren't travelling as much, because they can't afford it.

 

 

 

The cost of gas is a big reason why.  During my teenage years I was able to use the change in my cup holder and get a gallon of gas.  That change in the cup holder today doesn't do too much at all today.  It's just become more expensive to drive- so teens have had to adapt due to very limited income (in most cases).  With gas close to $3.50, walking, bicycling, and transit become a bit more attractive.

Not to mention that they can't get that job flipping burgers or delivering pizza these days because adults are working those jobs.

Video games make a difference as well. When I was in high school, high schoolers didn't play video games much. Kids played a lot of video games in elementary and middle school, but would slow down with the gaming in high school significantly. That doesn't seem to be the case these days.

While I'd like to think that they are taking transit, bicycling, or walking instead of driving, probably what's happening is that they just aren't travelling as much, because they can't afford it.

 

 

They are traveling less overall. But they are increasingly traveling on transit and biking. Note that this article isn't just about Phoenix....

 

http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,7852.msg599876.html#msg599876

While I'd like to think that they are taking transit, bicycling, or walking instead of driving, probably what's happening is that they just aren't travelling as much, because they can't afford it.

 

 

They are traveling less overall. But they are increasingly traveling on transit and biking. Note that this article isn't just about Phoenix....

 

http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,7852.msg599876.html#msg599876

 

I think 8th and State's point is that this is a trend driven by necessity, not changes in taste or preference. We're talking about 16-17 year olds; come on... To be fair, I guess you could assume that for a teenager, taking a bus or bike is more bearable with electronic devices like Androids, iPods and the like. They might also be nagging their parents for costly gadgets more-so than cars.

 

But think about the psychology of a teenager and what they're going through at that stage in their life. They crave freedom. Nothing like that newly discovered freedom of being able to drive wherever you want, whenever you want. They're already seeing it with their friends who just got their license and car. I'm 25 and I can still remember what a relief it was to get away.  Even driving myself to work at 17 was freedom. I didn't have to ask my mom to drive me and didn't have to wait around for a bus that I was already used to having to take. Being a teenager and getting your license and a car feels like a right of passage; it makes you feel more grown and responsible. You feel more like an adult. We had MySpace and texting back in 2003 but I still felt happier being able to go hang out with my friends in person at cool places like Mt. Adams and Cincinnati Mills (at the time, hehe) or Kenwood, etc. I really can't see most teenagers being content with riding the bus and biking. They''re already used to it (as a last resort). It's simply a stage in life when one yearns for freedom and the ability to get away from your parents. You don't really get that from fixed bus routes or riding your bike. Not to mention, being a teenager, you're pretty obsessed with your image and we've been brainwashed by society's notion that you must be poor or a nerd to be content with public transit and biking. 40 Year Old Virgin comes to mind, ha. Teenagers are the age group most preoccupied with fancy electronic gadgets, clothing brands and anything else status-oriented.

 

Most teens rely on their parents for financial help, even if they have a job and the most realistic conclusion I would draw from this study is that parents aren't able to help their kids as much as they used to. With their limited resources they can only provide so much for their kids and personally I can see how teenagers are probably asking for a hell of a lot more these days than before. The up front cost of getting your license is pretty high. I think I remember the BMV charging a pretty hefty fee for the whole process of initially getting your license. Then you have to worry about Driving School, tags, expensive insurance, a new car with maintenance, gas, the whole 9.

 

Teenagers never had any concept of what things actually cost because they haven't worked and paid for EVERYTHING themselves yet. I know a lot of grown-@ss 20 somethings that are lucky enough to have parents who cover their cell phone bills or things like insurance. I've heard so many older people in their 50s and up, just mention in casual conversation, about how they don't think they could survive in this economy if they weren't already established. They say things like, "I feel bad for your generation." "You can't even afford to have kids anymore. I wouldn't choose to have kids in this day and age." It's pretty damn depressing when you're young and hear that stuff. I'm starting to understand what they're talking about though. I remember, in the early 90s, as a kid, my family was dirt-poor but we didn't really have it that bad. Wages were about what they are now, if not higher but I remember everything being so much cheaper. Gas was a buck a gallon. Food was cheaper. Cell phones, broadband and stuff weren't so relevant that you really needed one. You really didn't have as many bills.

 

I keep getting off topic but just one more thing I'd like to point out. What the hell is up with so many people being able to buy new cars during a damn near depression? Screw low interest rates, new cars and their insurance premiums are still expensive. It's so weird to me. The prices of cars aren't going down. I really don't think the price of used cars has gone down at all during the recession, except for gas guzzlers, which is expected.

 

I think 8th and State's point is that this is a trend driven by necessity, not changes in taste or preference. We're talking about 16-17 year olds; come on... To be fair, I guess you could assume that for a teenager, taking a bus or bike is more bearable with electronic devices like Androids, iPods and the like. They might also be nagging their parents for costly gadgets more-so than cars.

 

I understand his contention and yours. And I'm partially disagreeing with him, and you. Young people don't  view those gadgets as a means to tolerate transit. They use transit so they can use their gadgets more. I don't doubt there's economic issues involved, but when they decide whether to spend $200 a month on gadgets, apps, and software or to spend $200 a month to lease on a car, the car is increasingly losing out. But economics is only part of the story. As you know I track transportation trends very closely, and something more structural and long-term is happening here.......

 

Young people increasingly tend to view cars less as an escape or a tool for rebellion, but something to escape from and to rebel against. The reason is that they've spent so much time in cars as children, that they view it as a necessary evil. Like homework?

 

But please don't take this rail/transit advocate's word for it. Heed the Ford Motor Co., Kiplinger and others.....

 

Is Digital Revolution Driving Decline in U.S. Car Culture?

Shift Toward Fewer Young Drivers Could Have Repercussions for All Marketers

By: Jack Neff Published: May 31, 2010

 

Ford Motor Co. sees the trend as well, which is why it has introduced features such as Sync in its cars. "I don't think the car symbolizes freedom to Gen Y to the extent it did baby boomers, or to a lesser extent, Gen X-ers," said Sheryl Connelly, global trends and futuring manager. "Part of it is that there are a lot more toys out there competing for the hard-earned dollars of older teens and young adults."

 

.....The economy, rather than any longer-term secular trend, has impacted driving and licensing among younger people, said Paul Taylor, chief economist with the National Automobile Dealers Association. Unemployment has led some younger consumers to drive less, and the cost of insuring a 16-to-19-year-old driver alone can discourage cash-strapped parents from allowing them to get licenses. State licensing requirements and restrictions by many high schools and colleges on driving are also a factor.

 

Mr. Draves, however, notes that the shift began well before the recession or the preceding run-up in gas prices. The real-estate markets most profoundly affected by the bursting housing bubble -- such as Las Vegas and other Sunbelt metro areas -- are boom towns built around highways with no substantial train transportation. Real-estate markets that have been less affected or quicker to recover include Boston and San Francisco, which have strong urban rail systems. In New Jersey, Connecticut, Boston, Denver and Chicago, housing prices near new or existing train stations have either been among the first to recover or have seen less depreciation during the bursting of the housing bubble.

 

READ MORE AT:

http://adage.com/article/digital/digital-revolution-driving-decline-u-s-car-culture/144155/

 

__________________________

 

Generation Y Giving Cars a Pass

The generation gap is a growing, long-term headache for automakers.

By Jim Ostroff

 

Selling cars to young adults under 30 is proving to be a real challenge for automakers. Unlike their elders, Generation Yers own fewer cars and don’t drive much. They’re likely to see autos as a source of pollution, not as a sex or status symbol.

 

....“It’s a matter of mind-set far more than affordability,” says William Draves, president of Learning Resources Network, an association that studies consumer trends and provides education and training services.

 

“This generation focuses its buying on computers, BlackBerrys, music and software and views commuting a few hours by car a huge productivity waste when they can work using PDAs while taking the bus and train,” says Draves.

 

Moreover, in survey after survey, Gen Yers say that they believe cars are damaging to the environment. Even hybrid electric vehicles don’t seem to be changing young consumers’ attitudes much.

 

READ MORE AT:

http://autos.yahoo.com/articles/autos_content_landing_pages/1523/generation-y-giving-cars-a-pass/

 

________________________

 

 

Carmakers' next problem: Generation Y

People in their teens and twenties are more interested in gadgets than cars

By Allison Linn

Senior writer

msnbc.com

updated 11/4/2010 9:41:49 AM ET

 

Meet Natalie McVeigh, the auto industry’s latest headache.

 

At 25 years old, McVeigh lives in Denver and has two good jobs, as a research analyst and an adjunct professor of philosophy. What she doesn’t have — or want — is a car.

 

A confluence of events — environmental worries, a preference for gadgets over wheels and the years long economic doldrums — is pushing some teens and twentysomethings to opt out of what has traditionally been considered an American rite of passage: Owning a car.

 

READ MORE AT:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39970363/ns/business-autos/t/carmakers-next-problem-generation-y/#.TyeCQ8V5GSo

Hell, I'm 30 and my roommate is 28, and neither us of drive. Just thinking about investing in a car and all its headaches...yech.

You're lumping teenagers in with young professionals who could really use the extra hour or two to handle business on their Blackberry and whatnot. It makes no sense. I really don't think teenagers are rallying against automobiles and those articles aren't really suggesting that teenagers are.

"The real-estate markets most profoundly affected by the bursting housing bubble -- such as Las Vegas and other Sunbelt metro areas -- are boom towns built around highways with no substantial train transportation. Real-estate markets that have been less affected or quicker to recover include Boston and San Francisco, which have strong urban rail systems. In New Jersey, Connecticut, Boston, Denver and Chicago, housing prices near new or existing train stations have either been among the first to recover or have seen less depreciation during the bursting of the housing bubble."

 

 

This is so misleading. Those areas near transit lines in old cities probably recovered quickly or were less affected to begin with because they were disproportionately affected by the foreclosure crisis. They didn't have the problem of over-building like sunbelt cities.

Here's what I know -- that viewpoints about driving and where to live have changed from generation to generation. I'm old enough to have witnessed the change since the 1970s and it's quite noticeable.

 

I also encourage to you to do some searches using the search terms of foreclosures, gas prices and transit. You may be very surprised of the results. Keep reading. It does a mind good.

The thing about teens versus those in their 20s is that teens haven't gotten the opportunity to choose where they live yet and haven't been exposed to walkable areas or transit. Many (most?) teens in Ohio are still raised in sprawl, semi-rural or rural areas at least for now. Their parents' sprawly stereotypes and lifestyles are still rubbing off on them, and parents in these situations love to throw money (if they have it) at their teens since the outer 'burbs and exurbs are a money-spending competition. Driving is still a big deal for a lot of teens; just not as many as before. Once they go away to college and are exposed to walking places and visit cities with lots of urban vibrancy and rail transit their outlook often changes. And, they aren't as likely to have extra money hanging around after the rent, bills and student loans are paid -- even if their folks are helping them out.

 

Nonetheless, teens that aren't getting money thrown at them by their folks are having a harder time affording driving and screen based distractions seem to calm them more than when I was that age. They also don't have as much of an anti-urban agenda barked at them than kids of the '50-'80s did. Even if their folks are city-haters, the rest of American culture isn't backing them up as much as it used to.

I think it also has something to do with the stress of the last ten years or so; there's probably a much deeper issue here than you think. Think about the ludicrous price of cars, the even worse costs of maintenance, the fluctuating and scary leaps and drops of oil that affect everything and are blaring headlines everywhere, the growing perception of oil companies being seen as bad guys, the quiet anger towards Big Auto and their crappy cars and selfish unions, the growing likelihood of wars between Middle Eastern counties who can use oil as leverage/blackmail. Teens have gone through since the millineium - hell, we just (somewhat) exited a war which was primarily about oil, or at least it was an indirect component.

 

Add in a $hitty economy where disposal income is hard to come by, and it's no surprise that teens, really anyone who isn't rich, would want to buy cars. It's just been too stigmatized on some level.

John Schneider has made a point in the past about how we are, in reality, becoming less and less mobile in the US. Teenagers waiting longer to get their licenses certainly fits in to that theory.

Ohio has also made a lot harder to get your driver's license at a young age. The path of least resistance is to wait until you are 18 and don't have jump through a lot of the hoops.

 

The teenagers that I know are taking rides with parents or friends, not taking the bus.

 

  When I was in high school, I had two next-door neighbors who were brothers one year apart, who lived in the same house and went to the same high school at the same hours. Seems like the perfect car-pool, right? Well, to my surprise, they drove in separate cars. Today, there is less of this extra driving going on.

 

 

I have no doubt that's occurring in lots of suburban areas, and especially in states like Ohio where most cities' transit isn't extensive enough to be anything more than politically cosmetic, if it's available at all.

 

Here's another view from a friend of mine in Columbus....

http://bwilli910.wordpress.com/2012/01/31/maybe-teens-are-reinventing-the-wheel/

When I was a kid way back in the '60's, the car was a symbol of freedom and sex. Boys couldn't wait to get a license at 16. It meant freedom and power. Drive a hot car, get the girls. Walking was tolerated, but not cool. Riding a bike once you hit 16 was a ticket to nerd city. I never bought into all that and am so glad attitudes are changing.

^Nowadays girls don't care if you have a cool car. It's almost like they don't like it when you do because they think you'll bore them with details about the car, spend a bunch of time working on it and hanging out with "boring" car friends at the track. That you're a "car nerd" that they can't relate to.

 

That changes when the car is worth over $100,000, though, because then it means that your a rich guy. Then they get excited.

Here's another view from a friend of mine in Columbus....

http://bwilli910.wordpress.com/2012/01/31/maybe-teens-are-reinventing-the-wheel/

 

Thanks for the plug, Ken. I was just about to post it myself. By the way, Bill's comment about cars and freedom and sex is a topic in "Driving Like Crazy," P.J. O'Rourke's 2009 book. I haven't read it yet (I'm not a big O'Rourke fan), but I've heard him discuss it on TV and he makes the case that social media have replaced cars for freedom and sex.

^Nowadays girls don't care if you have a cool car. It's almost like they don't like it when you do because they think you'll bore them with details about the car, spend a bunch of time working on it and hanging out with "boring" car friends at the track. That you're a "car nerd" that they can't relate to.

 

That changes when the car is worth over $100,000, though, because then it means that your a rich guy. Then they get excited.

 

Ha ha...Being a rich guy. I wonder what that's like?

Heh.  I know a number of rich people.  Not a single one of them drives a $100,000 car.  (After all, considering how poorly something like that holds its value, they'd be a lot less rich after they made that purchase than before ...)

 

I do know a fair number of people who drive $50,000 cars, and even that number seems crazy to me.  I'm still driving the used Nissan that I got down in Heath back in 2007 (before <a href="http://hotair.com/archives/2010/08/25/used-car-prices-skyrocket-a-year-after-cash-for-clunkers/"> cash for clunkers drove the prices of used cars skyward</a>).  As for whether a more luxurious car still has power as a sex or status symbol--well, most of those people I know who are getting cars in that range are already happily married senior professionals, not young professionals and certainly not teenagers.  Very few teenagers are going to get $30k sports cars--heck, even if I could afford it, I wouldn't get my kid one of those.  After all, I crashed the first car I had (little POS Escort).

 

With respect to teenagers, the two dominant hypotheses on this thread are not mutually exclusive.  Networking technology has allowed teenagers to expand their worlds more without leaving home (not just traditional social networking like Facebook, but also gaming networks such as WoW, CoD:Elite, Steam, etc.).  At the same time, household resources are stretched thin, used cars are more expensive, and vehicle operating costs have climbed as well.

 

I'd also be interested in seeing teenage driver data over a longer period of time and see whether we're really descending into a trough or just simply returning to something closer to the average over the last ten or twenty years (on a per-capita basis).

Hmm... Cash for Clunkers drove the price of used cars skyward. That makes sense. I never thought of that. Hidden injury of a reformation in the tax code.

This could probably go here, too. :)

 

Youth will be served by robust Ohio passenger rail

Published: Saturday, February 04, 2012, 10:45 AM    Updated: Saturday, February 04, 2012, 11:31 AM

  By Plain Dealer guest columnist

 

On Dec. 27, engineer James Shoemaker nudged the throttle of his state-owned, 3,000-horsepower locomotive, City of Asheville, to 79 mph on tracks owned and improved by the North Carolina Department of Transportation. Behind Shoemaker were 286 passengers on the midday Piedmont run that was added in 2010 by NCDOT.

 

"When I first moved here, the one daily Piedmont rarely filled one coach; now there are six full trains," said the former Ohioan, joking that weekend trains are called "laundry runs" because so many college students use them to visit home on weekends. "These trains are becoming a part of the fabric of life between Charlotte and Raleigh."

 

This 170-mile route has the same population density but fewer college students than Ohio's 250-mile "3C Corridor" linking Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton and Cincinnati.

 

READ MORE AT:

http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2012/02/youth_will_be_served_by_robust.html

Hmm... Cash for Clunkers drove the price of used cars skyward. That makes sense. I never thought of that. Hidden injury of a reformation in the tax code.

 

A common misconception that I held until recently.

 

The actual driver in the increased costs of used cars has more to do with a decline in leasing which had the biggest impact on the supply shortage.

 

http://www.automotive-fleet.com/blog/Market-Trends/story/2011/09/Resale-Values-Forecast-to-Decline-10-15-by-2014-as-Used-Vehicle-Supply-Increases.aspx

 

Today’s high resale values are an anomaly caused by the shortage of used vehicles in the wholesale market due to the extremely low sales of new vehicles during the 2008-2011 timeframe. Nowadays, everyone is a hero when it comes to getting top dollar for their out-of-service fleet vehicles. However, these artificially high prices will ultimately decline as used-vehicle supply increases. Most remarketing analysts predict used-vehicle supply will begin to increase starting in CY-2013. As used-vehicle supply reaches equilibrium with buyer demand, resale values will soften.

 

Regarding the Japanese earthquake last year (and some flooding in Malaysia, correct?), did the shortage of new cars steer people toward recent used cars, driving an increase in demand for them?

It isn't just an American phenomenon.....

 

Going bussed: economy and tuition fees drive the young away from the car

Sales of coach and train discount cards surge as driving becomes a minority pursuit among cash-strapped students

Gwyn Topham, Tom Midlane and James Brilliant

guardian.co.uk, Sunday 26 February 2012 10.47 EST

 

A generation of students facing higher tuition fees and lower job prospects appears to be embracing the mixed joys of budget travel in rising numbers – with the teenage dream of passing the test and driving a car now an increasingly unaffordable, minority pursuit.

 

Operators report that the traditional staples of budget travel, the young person's rail and coach cards, are being purchased in record numbers.

 

National Express, Britain's largest coach operator, reported a surge in sales of coach and regional bus discount cards last year, with 36% more being sold year on year.

 

Train companies said that record numbers of young people now have a railcard: over 1.2m were sold or renewed last year, almost a third higher than the 950,000 who had a discount railcard in 2005. The Association of Train Operating Companies (Atoc) said that 18-25 year-olds made over 50m journeys by rail last year, 60% up on five years ago.

 

READ MORE AT:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/feb/26/economy-young-car-coach-train

Interesting report. I started driving in 1983, so I guess that makes me an example from the old paradigm!

 

Study: Teens in No Rush to Get Behind the Wheel

 

A teenage rite of passage may be losing its allure among young people. According to a study by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, teens are in no hurry to get their driver's licenses.

 

In 1983, 46% of 16-year-olds in the U.S. had their licenses, but only 31% did in 2008, the study says. It's not just 16- year-olds, either. In 1983, 80% of 18-year-olds had their licenses, but that number fell to 65% in 2008.

 

The rise of public transportation options, especially in large cities, has likely contributed to the delay, the study says. High gas prices are a deterrent, too. According to the study, the national average cost of a gallon of gas was $1.24 in 1983; it rose to $3.27 in 2008.

 

But there could be another reason: the internet. The study found that social media sites are making it easier for teens to connect and interact with their friends.

 

READ MORE AT:

http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2012/01/study-teens-in-no-rush-to-get-behind-the-wheel.html

New School. I got my license last summer on my 21st birthday.  It had nothing to do with the internet and everything to do with being lazy.

Although I got my learner's permit in 1983, I didn't get my license until I was almost 17 in February 1984. And it wasn't due to the Internet either.... :-P

It's a money issue primarily. It's hard for teens to get jobs,  gas is expensive,  cars are expensive, parts are expensive, insurance is expensive, mom and dad have no money and can't always help out, disposable income is limited and goes instead to cell phones, etc etc.

 

 

See, when I was a kid, disposable income was limited too. But we used it to drive cars. We didn't have cell phones but other stuff was expensive. I paid $75 for a 14-inch color TV that later doubled as a computer monitor. An Atari 2600 video game system sold in the low-$100s in the early 1980s while Nintendo Famicom consoles sold for about $100 in the mid-80s. Video game cartridges were usually around $20-$30 each. Most apps cost less than that today. My Commodore 64 computer keyboard sold for $200 in 1984 and the disk drive cost $150. And I used my $75 Sony TV. I also had a dot matrix printer and a modem but I don't remember what they cost. You can buy laptops today for less than $425. I had a Honda XR100 off-road motorcycle for much of the early 1980s, but my dad paid for it. I remember he paid nearly $1,000 for it. I also had a Roland synthesizer in the 1980s he bought for $1,700. The prices for many of these things have gone down over the years.

 

Keep in mind that the minimum wage through the entire 1980s was only $3.35 an hour. I didn't work a job that was above the minimum wage until 1988.

But teens could get jobs those days with relative ease and at least contribute with gas and insurance.  Today teenage unemployment is at catastrophic levels, and kids have to rely on their parents far more than during your and perhaps my generation. Something has to give

 

 

There may be some psychological elements to it as well such as 9/11 soured many people to funding oil rich muslim countries.  Anger towards previous generations (legacy costs...oy) and protesting by not buying cars. Perhaps the internet is a factor as cars are unnecessary for communication these days. Kids might be lazier today as well, more coddled,  more supported.

 

 

 

 

Also keep in mind that many of the statistics about teen drivers are on a national level, and the trend is particularly apparent in L.A., where gasoline prices have always been higher than most places in the country, and the economy is terrible. There are enough teenagers in L.A. to influence the national average.

 

I think that the trend is mainly due to cost. Driving is expensive, and it's an item that fewer can afford.

 

When I was in high school, the standard reason to get a car was to be able to drive to work. At the same time, the standard reason to get a job was to be able to afford a car. It didn't make sense to me, but it must have resulted in a net positive benefit for most teen drivers. Sometimes the parents contributed, just to get their kids some job experience if nothing else.

I wasn't able to get jobs all that easy. I went to Sea World one spring in the early-80s for a hiring expo. They were hiring hundreds of people but thousands of people showed up. I didn't get the job. One summer my friends and I went door to with lawnmowers and hedgecutters looking for some work because all the usual suspects (Kmart, McDonald's, gas stations) weren't hiring. In 1992 after I graduated from college, I showed to my older sister all the job application rejection letters I got. The packet was maybe a half-inch to an inch thick. There were so many it made my sister cry.

 

I think you ought to look at the research being done by Ford Motor Co. or Kiplinger on why young people are driving less. There are many reasons, certainly. But economics is only part of the story.

 

There are definite cultural changes which have occurred over the past 30 years. In the 1970s and 80s, no teenager in their right mind would think that living in the city or riding a bicycle was cool. If I did that, I would have been laughed at by my friends. In my high school there were a couple of new wave/punk rockers with orange or purple hair who had bicycles and rode them everywhere, but they were VERY out of the ordinary. I got in my mother's Mazda RX7 and drag-raced one of them (it was actually his idea!) on his bicycle because he was so gung ho about biking. In retrospect, he was a pioneer even though we thought he was a odd-bird back then. He lived up to his last name -- Wilde.

I posted this over in Peak Oil, but it applies here as well, I think:

 

"People are also going to be less interested in driving anyway, even if the cars cleaned the air and generated their own energy. Having to follow all those rules and be at 100% attention at all times or face death, injury, jail time or even just insurance hassles and spending time at the shop just to get around is wearing people out."

 

 

I'm starting to think that younger people (especially) are getting tired of all the rules associated with driving. Stop now, left turn only, go this fast here, can't stop here, make sure all your lights work, no parking, don't talk on the phone, be stone cold sober, change your oil at this many miles, don't get your picture taken by the red-light camera by accident, no U-turn etc. etc. etc. are starting to outweigh the feeling of being able to go anywhere at any time. You don't feel very free when you're trying to make a left turn and there's a half-mile-long flotilla of cars that you have to sit through just to get an opening.

 

There certainly seem to be a lot more regulations, fees and irritation from driving these days. Don't know if that's actually true, but it sure seems that way. I have a cool car (2010 Hyundia Genesis Coupe) and I like to drive it (especially way, way out in the country on twisting, turning roads!), but I've seriously considered getting rid of it for a cheaper car or even going car-free. But it's on a lease and those aren't easy to break. Even if I never take it out of the parking garage, it's costing me $5,000 a year.

I'm starting to think that younger people (especially) are getting tired of all the rules associated with driving.

 

Naw, older drivers are getting tired of all the rules. Younger people can't remember the good old days. I can give example of situations where it takes LONGER to drive the same distance today than it did just 10 years ago.

 

The thing that frustrates me most about driving is the effect of "You can't get there from here." No left turn, inability to park in one business and walk to the one next door (parking for customers only; all others will be towed), lack of parking altogether, walking across a sea of parking lots, inability to window-shop while driving, inability to cross the highway (either walking or driving,) excessive speed bumps, long stoplights, or too many stoplights, and, well, you get the idea. Too much of this defeats the purpose of driving. A lot of older folks say that driving used to be a pleasure, but now it's just a hassle. The relative utility of driving has decreased.

 

If there's any good news, the number of fatalities has dropped from a high in the 1950's or 1960's, even with increasing miles driven.

I'm starting to think that younger people (especially) are getting tired of all the rules associated with driving. Stop now, left turn only, go this fast here, can't stop here, make sure all your lights work, no parking, don't talk on the phone, be stone cold sober, change your oil at this many miles, don't get your picture taken by the red-light camera by accident, no U-turn etc. etc. etc. are starting to outweigh the feeling of being able to go anywhere at any time. You don't feel very free when you're trying to make a left turn and there's a half-mile-long flotilla of cars that you have to sit through just to get an opening.

 

This.  I simply get tired of driving (at least around here).  I had a 240sx that I fixed up and had fun with while I lived in Athens, but driving down there is a completely different experience than driving up here.  When I drive in Cleveland I constantly find myself saying "you've gotta be kidding", mostly due to other drivers and the density of the street grid.  Taking the bus or rapid is just so much less stressful, makes a huge impact on how I perceive the enjoyment of my day.

 

Also I think along the lines of technology, apps on smart phones that tell you when the next bus or train is coming is a complete game changer for public transit.  It will change the perception of the lowly bus in the US...trust me, it already has in Chicago.

If people can see the bus route on their phone, people won't have that "Why are we turning? Am I on the right bus? Am I going to get stranded?" terror inherent with tire transit.

A point that's being missed here is that young people (30 and under) are increasingly attached to laptops, I-Pads, I-Pods, smart phones, etc.... all of which makes cars less attractive because none of these devices can be used (at least not safely) while driving.

 

That's why young people are looking for schools and jobs in locations where they don't have to be car-dpendent.  Therefore... no need to own one.  Instead, they are looking to locate in places that have walkable neighborhoods, good mass transit and intercity passenger rail.

 

A friend of mine from Chicago made this observation recently.  He said that twenty years ago, when he rode to "El " to his downtown job, his fellow passengers were mainly older folks who buried their faces in a copy of the Sun-Times or the Tribune.,  Today, he says, the vast majority of his fellow commuters are decidedly younger and all absorbed in their electronic devices.